Commanders Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Commanders win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Washington defied preseason expectations in 2024, winning 12 games in a season where their win total was 6.5. Their season ended in the NFC Championship at the hands of the Eagles. 

For Washington’s front office, the offensive line proved the priority this offseason. Laremy Tunsil arrives via trade to play left tackle, with Washington using their first-round pick on a right tackle. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Washington’s 2025 win total and my Commanders win total prediction. 

Commanders Win Total Odds

The Commanders’ season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate over 8.5 wins as a slightly more likely outcome. Currently, that side is priced at -120 for an implied probability of 54.5%. 

Comparatively, under 8.5 wins is priced at +100 for an implied probability of 50%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC East teams:

• Philadelphia Eagles: 11.5 Wins
• Washington Commanders: 9.5 Wins
• Dallas Cowboys: 7.5 Wins
• New York Giants: 5.5 Wins

Commanders Win Total Prediction 2025

Washington Commanders Under 9.5 Wins (+100)

Based on Washington’s expected regression in 2025 and their increase in difficult opponents, I predict the Commanders finish Under 9.5 Wins (+100). 

It’s no secret that Washington ran lucky in 2024. The Commanders finished 2.4 wins over expectation, according to ftnfantasy.com. 

Driving that overperformance? A 4-1 record in games decided by a field goal or less and a 8-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. 

For as much as I recognize Washington made quality improvements in the offseason, history suggests they’re primed to regress. 

Since the schedule expanded to 17 games, six teams won 10 or more games while winning at least 80% of field-goal games (minimum five contests).

None of those six teams improved upon their previous season’s output, with all six regressing by at least four wins. The average decline: 5.3 wins year-over-year. 

Another argument in favor of fading the Commanders? The team is slated to face a significantly more difficult schedule in 2025. 

Last season, Washington faced only five games against eventual playoff teams and the second-easiest schedule in the league. 

Head coach Dan Quinn’s side finished 1-4 in games against playoff teams. The lone success? A home win against the Eagles, who blew a 13-point lead after three quarters with no Jalen Hurts. 

This season, Washington faces a more difficult schedule. 

Based on current win totals, Washington faces the 10th-hardest schedule in the league with eight games against playoff teams. 

Most of Washington’s success last season came via their offense, making up for their weak defense. 

Last year, the Commanders finished sixth in offensive DVOA while playing the fourth-easiest set of opposing defenses. 

This year, they face nine defenses that finished 12th or better in DVOA last season, per ftnfantasy.com. 

If the Commanders offense takes a step back, I question how they overcome one of the weakest defenses in the league. 

As a result, I like the under on Washington’s win total in 2025. 

Most Wins in Commanders History

The Commanders’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. They accomplished this twice (1983 and 1991).

Both seasons resulted in trips to the Super Bowl, and the 1991 season ended with a Super Bowl title.

Fewest Wins in Commanders History

The Commanders’ franchise record for the fewest wins in a single season is one, which has happened twice. It was in back-to-back seasons in 1960 and 1961.