3M Open 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

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Cameron Young watches his shot on the second tee during the third round of the John Deere Classic golf tournament, Saturday, July 8, 2023, at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Ill.
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Ryan Hannable @RyanHannable Jul 25, 2023, 12:05 PM
  • The 3M Open from TPC Twin Cities is July 27-30.
  • It is a relatively easy course, although it does have several water hazards.
  • Defending champion Tony Finau and Cameron Young (+1400) have the best odds to win.

Although it isn’t a designated event, the 3M Open from TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, will have a better field than in recent years.

With only two events left prior to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and only 70 players qualifying instead of the 120 like in the past, several big-time golfers are teeing it up.

Defending champion Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas are some of those players.

At +1400, Finau and Young have the best odds to win.

After two weeks of links golf, players will return to a typical course on the PGA Tour with tree-lined fairways and a number of water hazards.

TPC Twin Cities is not a hard course by any stretch of the imagination. In the four previous editions of the tournament, the winning score has been 15-under or better.

It is a par-71 that plays just over 7,300 yards and is known for its massive greens. Because of this, a players’ short game isn’t as important as at other courses. The players who keep the ball in play and are able to attack the pins with their irons, have the best chance of scoring high on the leaderboard come the weekend.

While plenty of birdies will be made, there are a number of water hazards in play, so players will need to keep that in mind to avoid some big numbers. This makes it not a true birdie-fest.

I will be targeting players who keep the ball in play, are hitting their irons the best, and have shown the ability to make birdies on easy courses.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

3M Open Predictions 

Tony Finau and Cameron Young are predicted to win the 3M Open with a 6.67% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Sungjae Im follows the pair at 5.88%.

3M Open Best Bets

Tony Finau +1400 Odds to Win

Besides winning here a year ago, Finau checks a lot of the boxes when it comes to the key metrics for this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach and Birdies or Better Gained. 

After missing the cut at his last two events, including the Open Championship, Finau may have some extra motivation to get back on track this week.

Cameron Young + 1400 Odds to Win

When it comes to the United States Ryder Cup Rankings, many are focusing on Justin Thomas, but Young is another player who could be on the bubble to be a captain’s pick. Young has been inconsistent this year and may be playing this week to help boost his resume.

Coming off a T-8 finish at the Open Championship, Young has plenty of momentum and has the ability to make a ton of birdies. 

3M Open Sleepers

Lucas Glover +4500 Odds to Win

Thanks to a change in his putting style, Glover is playing some exceptional golf of late. The 43-year-old has three straight top-sixfinishes, with the events being similar to this where a lot of birdies will be made (Rocket Mortage Classic, John Deere Classic and Barbasol Championship).

Specific to TPC Twin Cities, Glover has played the event three times and has one top-10 finish.

Tom Hoge +6600 Odds to Win

Although Hoge has struggled a bit this year, he’s said this is one of his favorite events of the year since he grew up in nearby North Dakota. He was not playing his best before last year’s tournament and ended up finishing T-4.

3M Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

  • Cameron Young Outright Win +1400
  • Adam Hadwin Outright Win +3500
  • Cameron Young Top-10 Finish +150
  • Justin Thomas Top-20 Finish +120
  • Lucas Glover Top-20 Finish +200
  • Tom Hoge Top-20 Finish +250

For this week, my betting card was a little shorter than a typical tournament, and I relied on my Fantasy National model.

Given the lack of star players in the field, it’s harder to predict. I went heavy on top-20 finishes as that is where I believe the best value is this week.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

  1. Tony Finau
  2. Emiliano Grillo
  3. Hideki Matsuyama
  4. Ryan Palmer
  5. Cameron Davis
  6. Gary Woodland
  7. Vincent Norrman
  8. Aaron Rai
  9. Sepp Straka
  10. Lucas Glover

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About the Author

Ryan Hannable

Read More @RyanHannable

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”