Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

It is another PGA Tour signature event this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill.

Scottie Scheffler has dominated this event in recent years, winning two of the last three editions, including a year ago. Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +350.

Bay Hill is one of the tougher courses on the PGA Tour, known for its thick rough and also the potential for windy conditions. In three of the last five editions, the winning score has failed to reach double-digits under par.

This week will be similar to a major, where all facets of a player’s game will be tested. It won’t be a case where a player can solely rely on their length off the tee, for example.

I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-green, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green (on difficult courses), Proximity: 200+ yards, par-5 scoring and Bogey Avoidance.

In addition, course history is something to consider more than other events.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is expected to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 22.22% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 10.53%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets

Rory McIlroy Outright Winner (+850)

While Scheffler’s course history is outstanding, McIlroy’s isn’t far behind. He has played in the event nine times and finished inside the top 10 six times, including winning in 2018. In addition, he has gained the second most strokes here in the last five years.

McIlroy’s ability to drive the golf ball long and straight will help him greatly this week as playing from the fairway is imperative, but he’ll also have an advantage over most players hitting shorter clubs into greens. 

One of the keys for McIlroy will be limiting his mistakes. If he can keep the bogeys to a minimum, he has a great chance of being in contention Sunday afternoon. 

The 35-year-old enters the event playing some of his best golf to start the year in a while. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and finished T-17 at the Genesis Invitational.

With Scheffler still working his way back into form following a hand injury in December, this is a good opportunity for McIlroy at a course that clearly fits his eye.

Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish (+140)

Zalatoris has thrived on difficult courses and that is what will be the case this week. 

The 28-year-old also has some solid history at this event to fall back on. He’s gained the 11th-most strokes at this event in the last five years and that includes two top-10 finishes, including a T-4 last year.

So far this year, Zalatoris hasn’t been able to put four rounds together on a particular week. If he can finally turn the corner with that, he has a good chance at another solid week at Bay Hill.

Corey Conners Top-20 Finish (+175)

Conners is another player who seems to have his most success at the harder events and courses.

He’s gained the fifth-most strokes here in the last five years and in his last four appearances he’s finished no worse than T-21. 

Conners is one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour and it is his putter that holds him back. Since ball striking and avoiding trouble is so imperative this week, his below average putting can likely be overcome when it comes to putting together a solid week.