Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

I’ll never write – or say – anything I don’t believe, but sometimes even I don’t completely believe what I think I believe, so it needs a little explanation.

This is one of those times.

Consider it the paradoxical unstoppable force versus immovable object conundrum.

On the one hand, I don’t like betting on things that have never happened before. If you were offered an option on the sky being green tomorrow morning instead of blue, or water not being wet anymore, well, you’d probably need bigger odds than 25/1. There’s something about betting a known commodity that feels safer. If your eyes have witnessed a specific occurrence, it’s easier to understand how it can happen again.

On the other hand, I’m also a believer in the so-called law of averages. Statisticians – or maybe logicians – will explain that such a phenomenon doesn’t really exist, and that might be true for non-variable events like flipping a coin. In sports – and most relevantly, in golf – those who continue knocking on the door to success often make their way to the other side at some point. Past performance is not an indicator of future results, as they say in the stock market biz, and it’s applicable here, too. Just because a player keeps coming close without winning doesn’t mean he can’t, or won’t, ever win.

Not that Joe Highsmith and Brian Campbell had been knocking on any doors recently, but if you were a staunch supporter of the idea that you first needed to see something in order to believe it could happen, then you’ve been pretty shocked at the results of PGA Tour events over the past fortnight.

Perhaps we shouldn’t have needed the reassurance, but their victories only help to reinforce the notion that anything can happen on any given Sunday.

All of which leads us to this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational – and a favorite outright selection who’s never before won on U.S. soil. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Picks

Conservative: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)

I know, I know. I hate myself, too. Anyway… let’s first start with the positives. Fleetwood is, ahem, a proven winner, having claimed seven career DP World Tour titles. He’s the 10th-ranked player in the world. He’s one of the game’s best ball-strikers, gaining strokes with his driver in seven straight starts and 15 of his last 18, and with his irons in 12 straight and 17 of 18. He’s played three times this year, posting a T-21 in Dubai, T-22 at Pebble Beach and in his most recent start, T-5 at Torrey Pines. 

While a second-round 80 led to a missed cut at last year’s API, he owns three career top-10s in eight starts here, including a T-3 back in 2019. Alright, now let’s get to the negatives. Really, there’s just one, but it looms rather large anytime we discuss the chances of Fleetwood winning a PGA Tour event: He’s never done it before. 

This wasn’t such a big deal for a while in his career. He plied his craft in Europe more than the U.S. and simply hadn’t yet broken through in limited starts on this side of the pond. That’s no longer the case, though. Fleetwood has made 147 total starts, with five runner-up finishes, five third-place finishes, 25 top-fives and 38 top-10s. But no wins. He’s racked up more than $25 million in earnings. But no wins. He’s proven himself as one of the game’s most talented and most popular players. But no wins. Which makes chasing him at 25/1 sound like a ridiculous proposition, especially considering Hideki Matsuyama – he of the 11 career PGA Tour victories, including two last year and one already this year – sits at the same exact outright number this week, rendering this idea of Fleetwood as a “conservative” play admittedly laughable. 

If your immediate thought is, “I think I’m just gonna bet the other guy at the same price who actually wins golf tournaments,” it’s tough for me to offer much of a counter-proposal. And yet, I keep coming back to the idea that things in golf have a way of evening themselves out over time. Remember, the first half of Phil Mickelson’s career was clouded by the question of whether he’d ever win a major; he wound up with six of ‘em. 

I get it: Betting Tommy outright is going to require a leap of faith, but nobody can deny that he’s good enough or in-form enough or prepared enough to finally win on U.S. soil. If it’s more a matter of “when” than “if,” this feels like the proper place for it to finally happen.

Aggressive: Matt Fitzpatrick (+6600)

Hey, since we’re on the topic of taking leaps of faith, we might as well close both eyes before belly-flopping off the diving board without checking to see if there’s water in the pool. As bookish and diligent as they come within golf’s most elite level, Fitzpatrick chased speed and showed off his #gainz at the 2022 U.S. Open, winning his first major championship, then chasing it with a victory at Harbour Town the following year.

Things have slowed to a crawl recently, as he hasn’t posted a top-10 since last year’s Memorial Tournament, a span of 15 starts. The stats over this period are a mixed bag. He’s largely hit the ball pretty well off the tee and putted much better than average, but the iron and wedge play has been spotty. The truth, at any other golf tournament on any other golf course, I’d probably pass right over Fitzpatrick at this number in his current form. The reason I like an investment here is because he tends to become a different player when circumstances don’t call for four rounds in the mid-60s in order to contend for a title.

He’s outwardly stated that he prefers tougher conditions and it’s shown in his performance – to the point that one might suggest he appears bored playing the usual cookie-cutter TPC types that litter the annual schedule. Last year’s 273 total from Scottie Scheffler led to a five-stroke margin over the closest pursuer and served as an outlier at this event.

In three of the previous four, we’d witnessed single-digit under-par scores win at Bay Hill and a fast, firm course with expected breezy conditions should not only suit Fitz’s game, but his personality. Pars won’t leave players a half-stroke behind the field in most instances here and if the wind really blows, chugging away with par after par could move ‘em up the board. I like the idea of taking a chance on Fitzpatrick’s interest being piqued and his game rounding into form because of it.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Will Zalatoris (+650)

It would be easy enough to list Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in this spot, then simply reap the benefits later — and full disclosure, my failure to include them in this preview is a reflection on price, not expectations. If you prefer your conservative plays to be ultra-conservative, fire away on Scottie and Rory at short numbers which should still yield some ROI. My job, though, isn’t to state the obvious, so I’m looking further down the board toward a repeat performance from Zalatoris.

A popular selection at Bay Hill due to his ball-striking brilliance, he finished T-4 last year and should be primed for another strong result. It’s funny: The world’s best professional golfers will often tell us that they want their games to peak four times per year, but when we’re stuck in the February/March bubble, we’ll criticize those who haven’t yet peaked. With three top-30s in four starts, but no serious title contentions, it feels like Zalatoris is gradually building up to bigger things in coming months. I like taking the chance that it once again happens this week – and perhaps he’ll use this as a springboard for even more success at TPC Sawgrass next.

Aggressive: Denny McCarthy (+1100)

I’ve become consistently impressed with McCarthy’s ability to contend on long, tough golf courses. Even though he’s added speed recently, his driving distance remains below average in relation to his peers, yet he reached a playoff at Muirfield Village a few years ago and finished top-five at Torrey Pines three weeks ago. Perhaps the secret lies less within his improved ball-striking and more with what we already knew about. Long regarded as one of the best putters in the game, I believe that we collectively tend to pick McCarthy for tournaments where an uncommonly low score will win, essentially arguing that if it turns into a putting contest, the best putter should prevail.

I know I’ve taken that mindset in the past. The reality, though, is that McCarthy’s magic wand might be most valuable when the winning score is closer in relation to par. This week serves as a great example. Few regular-season events will look as much like a U.S. Open type of setup as this one, which suggests there will be plenty of eight-foot par-savers for every player over the course of four rounds. I’ll take my chances that McCarthy will make more of those than most others, which should vault him up the board on yet another venue which otherwise wouldn’t seem to fit his skillset.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Shane Lowry (+275)

It was a disappointing performance for Lowry at last week’s Cognizant Classic. He only finished in 11th place. This came on the heels of three straight top-five finishes for him at PGA National, but it also helps to showcase his lofty recent floor. He’s now finished 13th or better in 10 of his last 12 global starts, largely based on iron play which has been through the roof, as he’s gained at least nine-tenths of a stroke per round against the field in seven of his last eight.

Perhaps the greatest reason for optimism this week comes from what he did here last year. In his first five API appearances, Lowry’s record read: MC-MC-MC-MC-67th. Something finally clicked a year ago, though, as he rode the first-round lead to a solo third-place result. At some point, we’re going to see a Lowry ceiling week, but for now let’s be content to continue playing his high floor.

Aggressive: Keegan Bradley (+350)

There will be a fascinating underlying subplot throughout the summer on whether Captain Keegan can qualify for his own Ryder Cup team – or at least play well enough to consider himself for a captain’s pick. He’s on the right track so far, posting three top-15 finishes in five starts this season, although that’s left him a mere 29th on the early points list. And he can obviously make that conversation even more relevant this week, at a place where he owns four top-10s in 13 career starts. This is a nice opportunity for those who hit the ball long and straight off the tee, and fewer do that better than Bradley.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Min Woo Lee (+190)

Much as I wrote about Zalatoris above, it similarly feels like Min Woo is gradually building up to bigger and better things in coming months. That said, it’s not as if he’s played poorly so far, with four top-20s in five starts this year. Until we see a little more consistency, I think this is the right place to use him, but he’s certainly armed with enough offensive firepower to peak on any given week. A record of T-44 and two MCs in three career starts here is only slightly concerning, as I’d contend he’s a much more mature player now than he was during those appearances.

Aggressive: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+275)

At one point, Bezuidenhout was a member at Bay Hill and while I’m unsure as to whether that’s still the case, there should be a comfort level here which shouldn’t hurt. Perhaps that speaks to his record here, which includes three top-20s in five career starts. It’s no secret how he gets things done. While McCarthy has bolstered his world-class putting with improved ball-striking, C-Bez is all short game and flatstick, each of which have been tremendous in the first two months of this year. Putting on greens where there’s some familiarity should only enhance that advantage, as does his success on tough golf courses, much like Fitzpatrick.

Arnold Palmer Invitational First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Sahith Theegala (+5000)

While I love Theegala’s game and future prospects, he’s become a little bit of a nightmare for handicappers, because it’s tough to figure out exactly when and where he’s going to play well. I would’ve thought that could happen on his native West Coast, but the result of that swing was four below-average finishes and a T-17 at the Genesis Invitational in his most recent start. This one might not seem like it suits a guy who sprays it off the tee, and yet he’s finished T-6 and T-14 the past two years. All of which has me believing there’s as wide a range for Sahith this week as anyone in the field – it wouldn’t surprise me if he wins, nor would it come as a total shock if he finishes dead last. With such volatility, I’ll stop short of a four-round investment and instead take him for a single-round play instead, hoping his inevitable low one happens on Thursday this week.

Aggressive: Aldrich Potgieter (+6600)

As long as we’re on the subject of volatility, let’s talk Potgieter, the big-hitting 20-year-old who shoulda/coulda/woulda triumphed in Mexico a few weeks ago. Anyone who watched him lose to Campbell in a playoff knows there are parts of his game which need some fine-tuning, but also some raw talent which can’t be denied. While I believe Potgieter has a chance to become a superstar in the long term, I like the idea of playing that volatility for now, hoping for single-round brilliance over four-day sustainability.