AT&T Byron Nelson 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

In between a designated event with the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship is the AT&T Byron Nelson. 

And if the past two years at TPC Craig Ranch are any indication, players will get a break from tough tests, as the course is one of the easiest players will face all year, and a lot of birdies will be made.

A par-72 and 7,468 yards, TPC Craig Ranch rewards the longer hitters as it is pretty straightforward, without much trouble tee-to-green. It doesn’t mean shorter hitters can’t contend, but it is a very vanilla course by PGA Tour standards.

The tournament has only been held at the course twice, and K.H. Lee has won both times. In 2021 he finished at 25-under, and last year he won at 26-under.

When selecting players for the week, I will be focusing on players who can make birdies in bunches, particularly in early conditions, players who hit their long irons best and the top putters on bentgrass.

While he’s the two-time defending champion, Lee is +2500 to win. Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win at +333, down from +400 after Jordan Spieth withdrew Monday night due to a wrist injury.

Despite being the week before a major, nine players in the top 40 of the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*All odds as of May 9.

AT&T Byron Nelson Predictions 

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Wells Fargo Championship with a 23.09% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Tyrrell Hatton has the next best odds to win with a 7.69% implied probability.  He is followed by Tom Kim at 6.67%.

AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +333 Odds to Win

The No. 2-ranked player in the world is by far the best in the field, especially following Spieth’s withdrawal early in the week. Scheffler finished T-15 in the event a year ago and enters this year in great form.

The Texas native hasn’t finished worse than T-12 since October, including two wins (WM Phoenix Open and the Players Championship). However, the number is very low, which may make some hesitant to pick him for the week.

Jason Day +1600 Odds to Win

Taking away a missed cut at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship and a final-round 80 at the Masters, which he later said was due to experiencing vertigo, Day has been on a heater this spring. 

In the 2023 calendar year, the 33-year-old has seven top-20 finishes, including five top-five finishes. Day is a player who can make a ton of birdies this week, so if it’s healthy, he’s certainly worth a look.

AT&T Byron Nelson Sleepers

Tom Hoge +5000 Odds to Win

Hoge has had an up-and-down season, but this is a week to take advantage of a higher number. As one of the best iron players on the Tour and playing in his home state of Texas, the 33-year-old should not be +5000.

Missed cuts at the Masters and RBC Heritage mean he doesn’t come in with the greatest of form, but he’s taken the last few weeks off, and coming in refreshed could be a good thing.

Eric Cole +8000 Odds to Win

Cole checks the boxes of a lot of key metrics this week, including how he plays on some of the easier courses on Tour. That includes a T-5 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta just a few weeks ago.

The 34-year-old showed he has what it takes to contend earlier this year at the Honda Classic, so with a relatively weak field and an easy golf course, this could be another big week for Cole.

AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Tom Kim Outright Win +1400
• Tom Hoge Outright Win +5000
• Sam Stevens Outright Win +6600
• Eric Cole Outright Win +8000
• Tom Kim Top-10 Finish  +140
• Tom Hoge Top-10 Finish +375
• Tom Hoge Top-20 Finish +175

I stayed away from Scheffler and relied heavily on my Fantasy National model to find the best value. Clearly, I like Hoge this week, who ranked No. 1 overall in my model.

Kim finished T-17 at this event a year ago, and he’s a much better and more experienced player now than he was then.

Overall, I kept my card to a few players hoping my model will prove correct. Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Tom Hoge
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Davis Riley
5. Jason Day
6. Tyrrell Hatton 
7. Tom Kim
8. Ryan Palmer
9. Eric Cole
10. Sam Stevens