BMW Championship 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs will continue this week with the BMW Championship, Aug. 17-20 from Olympia Fields.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs format has the top 50 players in the standings qualifying this week and then the top 30 players qualifying for the Tour Championship.

Patrick Cantlay is the two-time defending champion of the event, although none of them were at Olympia Fields. He won the 2022 event at Wilmington Country Club and the 2021 event at Caves Valley.

Both of those events were borderline birdie fests, but that will not be the case this week.

Olympia Fields has hosted two U.S. Open’s and two PGA Championships, so it will have a major-championship-like feel. It has only hosted one PGA Tour event since 2003, the 2020 BMW Championship, which means there isn’t much course history to go off of.

Jon Rahm (-4) won that event in a playoff over Dustin Johnson. Only five players finished under par for the entire week.

At 7,366 yards, Olympia Fields plays long for a par 70 and includes a standard mix of two par-5s, four par-3s, and 12 par-4s. Both par-5s are over 600 yards, so scoring opportunities will be very limited.

It’s likely the players who avoid bogeys the best and keep the ball in play will have the best chance of winning at the end of the week.

Rory McIlroy has the best odds to win this week at +700, along with Scottie Scheffler.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*Odds as of August 15.

BMW Championship Predictions 

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are predicted to win the BMW Championship with a 12.5% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm follow at 9.09%.

BMW Championship Best Bets

Rory McIlroy +700 Odds to Win

McIlroy had the ball-striking to win last week at TPC Southwind, but some hiccups around the green caused him to finish T-3. He still is on a bit of a heater, as he’s logged eight straight top-10 finishes since the PGA Championship.

A T-12 finish at this course back in 2020 should give him even more confidence going into the week.

Patrick Cantlay +1000 Odds to Win

Cantlay just lost in a playoff to Lucas Glover at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, and he’s won this event each of the last two years. It’s also very surprising he’s yet to win this year, but he does have seven top-four finishes. 

The 31-year-old also finished T-12 at Olympia Fields in 2020, so he has a lot of things going his way.

BMW Championship Sleepers

Corey Conners +4000 Odds to Win

Conners has had some solid finishes in recent majors and it feels like Olympia Fields sets up nicely for him given it has a major championship-like feel. His ball-striking will serve him well and likely allow him to avoid a ton of scrambling.

He’s coming off a T-6 finish last week.

Matt Fitzpatrick +5000 Odds to Win

Admittedly, Fitzpatrick is in the middle of a big slump, not finishing inside the top 40 of any event since the U.S. Open, but he finished T-6 in 2020 when the event was last held at Olympia Fields. 

Like it did three years ago, his game should translate to success this week.

BMW Championship Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Viktor Hovland Outright Win +1600
• Tommy Fleetwood Outright Win +2200
• Jordan Spieth Outright Win +2200
• Taylor Moore Top-20 Finish +140
• Corey Conners Top-20 Finish +105

For this week, my betting card was much shorter than a typical tournament, and I relied on my Fantasy National model.

I treated this similar to a major, where it’s likely the winner is going to be one of the better players in the field and not a long shot. 

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Tyrrell Hatton
7. Jordan Spieth
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Collin Morikawa
10. Hideki Matsuyama