FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

After back-to-back weeks of birdie-fests on the PGA Tour, do not expect the same at this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

The top 70 players in the season-long standings are in the field at TPC Southwind, which has historically given the players a solid test. This isn’t to say it will be like a U.S. Open, but the winning score has typically been between 10 and 15-under.

Although this is just the second year the FedEx St. Jude Championship has been a playoff event, it’s been an event on the PGA Tour for many years. In fact, TPC Southwind has hosted PGA Tour events since 1989.

A par-70 that plays just over 7,200 yards has firm and fast Bermuda greens, which will test the players. With only two par-5s, there aren’t a ton of easy scoring holes, so it’s about making the most of opportunities.

Distance is not needed to succeed here, as it really has come down to who plays the best tee-to-green and can navigate the somewhat difficult greens.

Scottie Scheffler enters the week with the best odds to win at +650.

Will Zalatoris is the defending champion, although he won’t be in the field this week as he recovers from back surgery earlier this year.

The majority of the players who have won at TPC Southwind in the past won’t be teeing it up for various reasons (LIV, didn’t qualify, etc.). Harris English (2013) is the most recent winner in the field.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*All odds as of August 8.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions 

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship with a 13.33% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm follow at 10%.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets

Jon Rahm +900 Odds to Win

Rahm hasn’t played since finishing T-2 at the Open Championship, so he will be rested and ready to go for the playoffs, where he’s fared quite well. He’s also played well at TPC Southwind, including a T-5 last year.

After a very strong start to the season, Rahm cooled off this summer but a strong next few weeks could earn him Player of the Year honors.

Patrick Cantlay + 1600 Odds to Win

Cantlay has dominated the FedEx Cup of late, winning three of the last five playoff events dating back to 2021, when he was the FedEx Cup champion. The 31-year-old has had a solid year, but has yet to log a win.

At TPC Southwind, his best finish is a T-12 back in 2019.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Sleepers

Brian Harman +4500 Odds to Win

This will be Harman’s first start since winning the Open Championship, but he’s had plenty of time to celebrate so he should be rested and ready to go. He’s always been a steady player and can compete on most all golf courses despite not being a long hitter.

Harman finished T-3 at this event last year.

J.T. Poston +5000 Odds to Win

The 30-year-old is on a recent heater in non-majors. In his last four starts that weren’t majors, he’s finished T-2, T-6 (twice) and a T-7, so he’s picked the right time to play his best golf of the year.

Poston has also played well at TPC Southwind, finishing inside the top 20 twice in four appearances.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Jon Rahm Outright Win +900
• Tyrrell Hatton Outright Win +2500
• Jordan Spieth Outright Win +3300
• Tommy Fleetwood Top-10 Finish +220
• Sam Burns Top-10 Finish +220
• Cameron Young Top-20 Finish +120

For this week, my betting card was a little shorter than a typical tournament, and I relied on my Fantasy National model.

I treated this similar to a major, where it’s likely the winner is going to be one of the better players in the field and not a long shot. Although they don’t rank high in my model, I like Burns and Young to play well as they push to climb the United States Ryder Cup rankings.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Jon Rahm
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Tommy Fleetwood
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Rickie Fowler
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Viktor Hovland
8. Tyrrell Hatton
9. Xander Schauffele
10. Jordan Spieth