Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

We’re fresh off the PGA Tour’s third signature event of the season, during which it was heralded that 46 of the world’s top-50 players were in attendance.

The good part about the current schedule is that it more frequently pits the best players against each other. This didn’t often happen previously, when other than the majors and playoff events, we might get 34 of the top-50 one week and 29 the next week, always giving fans some modicum of superstars but rarely offering them a full cast.

It can be debated whether an entire calendar of haves and have-nots is better or worse for the consumer than one which includes a bunch of inbetweeners. What can’t be argued is that the have-not events lose plenty of luster in relation to the haves.

All of which brings us to this week’s Mexico Open, where the highest-ranked player in the field is 29th and only four of the top-50 will be in attendance.

If this isn’t exactly a ratings bonanza for the networks, it can at least be one for the bettors who have been paying close attention to those below the superstar delineation.

In its fourth year as a PGA Tour event, this one has proven to be a cash cow for the bombers, as 7,456-yard Vidanta Vallarta is about as wide open as they come, allowing the biggest hitters to swing away without worry of consequence.

Let’s get to this week’s selections, as always from a conservative and aggressive perspective for each one.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Outright Picks

Conservative: Akshay Bhatia (+1400)

On Sunday evening, prior to Genesis Invitational runner-up Maverick McNealy withdrawing from this event, I wrote a theory for this preview, which stated that recency bias should rightly have McNealy as the favorite, but I wasn’t so sure that he was the best player in this field. That’s not meant as a knock on him so much as it’s a credit to Bhatia, who seemingly continues to improve on a weekly basis. 

The 23-year-old two-time PGA Tour winner has finished inside the top-40 in each of his five starts this year, with last week’s T-9 being the best – and it shows he’s trending in the proper direction. While most of his fellow contenders from Torrey Pines have chosen to skip this week and prepare for the upcoming Florida Swing, I love the fact that Akshay has elected to play. 

Perhaps for the first time in his career, he’ll look around the practice facilities over the first few days and realize that he’s the indisputable best player on the property, a confidence boost which can be immeasurable in a young player’s maturation process, especially when so many of his starts, like last week, will come against the game’s best players. Throw in the fact that some of his best golf has occurred on tropical resort-style courses and there’s way too much to like about Bhatia this week. I don’t love playing favorites at any tournament, but this is one where talent has proven to cause separation, as Jon Rahm and Tony Finau traded the 1-2 positions in each of the event’s first two years on the PGA Tour schedule.

Quite frankly, anything longer than 10/1 against such an inferior field actually feels like a bargain. It might feel like an ultra-conservative play, but one week after cashing Ludvig Aberg tickets here in the preview, let’s use that bankroll to make another smart decision.

Aggressive: Will Gordon (+10000)

If you’re not taking Bhatia (or one of the other near-favorites) this week, then it feels like the right time to sprinkle some longshots throughout your card. Granted, this strategy hasn’t proven successful here, as Jake Knapp followed the Rahm-Finau years as a popular 40/1 play last year, but there’s something to be said for clicking on a few players with triple-digit odds and simply hoping for the best. 

Of course, that’s easier said than done, as there are 57 players squeezed into the sub-100/1 range this week, leaving the longshots looking like an Island of Misfit Toys. I could be talked into the likes of Emiliano Grillo (+10000), Henrik Norlander (+10000), Patton Kizzire (+12500) and Taylor Montgomery (+20000) from this range, but my favorite dart throw is Gordon. After dealing with injuries for much of the past year, he finished T-7 at the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks ago and was T-24 at this tourney two years ago. Plenty of players with triple-digits next to their names have neither form nor course history, so I’ll take my chances with a guy who’s got a little of each.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Harry Hall (+650)

Although he’s ranked outside the top-100 in both SG: Off the Tee and driving distance, I like the idea of targeting Hall in this market for the same reason that Denny McCarthy cashed top-five tickets at Torrey Pines last week. Making a bucketload of putts works on any course, anytime. This Bryson DeChambeau doppelganger actually lost strokes with his flat stick during a T-33 result at this event last year, but he’s been crushing it ever since, bettering the field average on the greens in each of his last 17 starts, including three top-25s in five tournaments already this year. Over the past three editions of this tourney, the winning score has ranged from 17-under to 24-under, meaning there should be plenty of birdie opportunities. I love the idea of a play on the guy who often makes the most of those chances.

Aggressive: Mac Meissner (+900)

Last season turned out to be a sneaky-good rookie campaign for Meissner, who might not have gotten the attention of the casual fans, but certainly placed himself on the radar of weekly bettors. He made the cut in 16 of 25 starts, including three top-10s and an impressive 10 top-25s – a rate of 40 percent which was better than a lot of bigger-name veterans. He hasn’t quite lived up to that level in the early part of this season, posting just a single top-25 in four starts, but there’s reason to believe better things are coming. He ranks 56th in driving distance and 29th in approach, numbers which should correlate nicely on this course. This is a ceiling play on Meissner, who’s yet to post a top-five on the PGA Tour, so I certainly don’t mind backing down to a top-10 or top-20 if you’d rather invest in his floor.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Sam Stevens (+220)

He’s listed as a conservative play for a top-10 here, but there’s little that’s conservative about Stevens’ game, which makes him fun to watch, both for talent and volatility. Though he probably wishes he could just play events at Torrey Pines for the rest of the season – where he’s posted a runner-up and a T-31 in two starts – his game should travel well to Mexico, where his driver/putter combo will again lead to plenty of red numbers on the card. 

While I’ve written recently about trying to catch him on the upswing of golf’s ever-winding roller coaster, I’m worried that he might’ve hit a little bit of a wall this past weekend, as he’ll now be competing for a seventh consecutive week. Even so, I’m willing to back him for one more, even with that little bit of caveat emptor thrown in.

Aggressive: Jake Knapp (+320)

I’ve always believed that betting the defending champion is like throwing your chips on the number that just hit on the roulette wheel. While the odds remain the same, our minds trick us into thinking of it as a two-piece parlay, while attempting to take into consideration the so-called law of averages that doesn’t really exist. In reality, a defending champion should have a better chance to return on investment than a roulette ball, because there are other variables at play, such as form and course fit.

As I mentioned above, Knapp was a trendy pick last year due to both the former and latter. While he’s struggled a bit since, I think competing in majors and signature events against the game’s best should have him more battle-tested and ready to play an event such as this one, where he won’t have to deal with all of those superstars.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Rasmus Hojgaard (+100) and Nicolai Hojgaard (+188)

I was asked a very relevant question by a colleague this past weekend: Which one of the Hojgaard twins is the better player? My answer: Well… it’s complicated.

Rasmus was the more accomplished amateur and believed to have the brighter future. Upon turning professional, that notion continued, as he won three times on the DP World Tour before Nicolai ever did. Perhaps spurred by Rasmus, though, Nicolai stepped on the gas pedal and passed him a couple of years ago, making the European Ryder Cup team while his bro watched from the sidelines. Nicolai was also the first to claim a PGA Tour card, playing a full schedule last year, while Rasmus was busy finishing second on the DP points list.

Now that they’re both on the PGA Tour, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Rasmus again eclipse Nicolai, as he’s already posted a pair of top-25s in three starts this season. Anyway, the bigger point for the sake of this week is that if you like one, you should probably like the other, as well, since their skill sets tend to mirror one another. I don’t mind a Hojgaard parlay here for a pair of top-20 finishes.

Aggressive: Frankie Capan III (+300)

Following a T-12 at The American Express, I was ready to jump on the Capan bandwagon, believing the rookie was about to beat some of his fellow freshman to the punch in finding early PGA Tour success. He followed with a T-56 at the Farmers and a missed cut at his hometown WM Phoenix Open, which has cooled that thinking, but I do still believe he’s got plenty of game to succeed at this level. Considering a rookie won this tourney last year, there’s no reason why we should shy away from one this time around. Capan’s big miss is long and crooked off the tee, but there’s plenty of room to miss this week, which should mitigate that weakness.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Ryan Fox (+6600)

I’ve been trying to make Fox happen for a few years now, but his international success just hasn’t translated into anything too special on the PGA Tour. Of course, this week’s event *is* international, so maybe we can jinx that jinx, so to speak. I don’t mind him for an outright play at 66/1, but I’ve been burned enough that I’d feel more confident in a single-round investment, as he ranked 37th in first-round scoring average last season.

Aggressive: Henrik Norlander (+10000)

Most of what I just wrote for Fox can be applied here for Norlander, who should be a target if you’re only playing longshot outrights this week. He’s only made one of four cuts this year, but his opening-round scores include a 65 and 67, plus he posted an opening 65 at this event last year, while ranking eighth in first-round scoring average.