Players Championship 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

Following a terrific PGA Tour signature event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one of the bigger weeks of the year is here with the Players Championship from TPC Sawgrass.

Golf’s “fifth major” will have one of the best fields of the year and test all facets of a player’s game.

The Pete Dye-design features water coming into play on 17 holes, so big numbers can be made at any time. It also features one of the best finishing stretches in the game, especially the par-3 17th hole with an island green.

To this point, four of the last five editions have been decided by a single stroke.

Scottie Scheffler has won each of the last two years, and has the best odds to win this week at +500.

I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-green, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green, Strokes Gained: Putting, par-5 scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and Birdies or Better Gained.

In addition, course history is something to consider more than other events.

Players Championship Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is expected to win the Players Championship with a 16.67% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 8.33%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Players Championship Best Bets

Ludvig Aberg Outright Winner (+1800)

Aberg picked up his first “big time” PGA Tour win last month at the Genesis Invitational and with that added confidence it feels like an even bigger win is coming. 

The 25-year-old finished fourth in his debut at this event a year ago, and has spent a lot of time in recent months practicing at TPC Sawgrass as he lives in the area. That familiarity with the grounds could give him an advantage over others this week.

While Aberg enters coming off a T-22 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, context is needed. A few bad holes led to a 77 on Saturday and he came back strong on Sunday with a 68.

Aberg comes in playing well, has a ton of confidence and is playing a course he’s very familiar with. 

Wins sometimes come in bunches on the PGA Tour and Aberg could be next on that list.

Justin Thomas Top-10 Finish (+250)

While Thomas struggled at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (T-36), he’s off to a solid start this season with three top-10 finishes in six starts. 

Most notably for Thomas is that he checks off a number of key metrics, including being No. 1 in the field when it comes to Strokes Gained: Approach and No. 5 in both Birdies or Better Made and Bogey Avoidance (last 24 rounds).

He’s also won at TPC Sawgrass before (2021), and is coming off a missed cut here a year ago, so will have some extra motivation. 

Sepp Straka Top-20 Finish (+160)

Straka checks a number of boxes off this week, which is why this feels like great value to finish inside the top 20.

A lot of key metrics are going his way, including being No. 1 in Birdie-or-Better Gained (last 24 rounds). 

The 31-year-old has a win to go along with three top 10s so far this year, including a T-5 finish last week. 

Finally, he’s fared pretty well at TPC Sawgrass, logging two top-16 finishes in four starts.

*Odds as of March 11