The Sentry 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The 2024 PGA Tour season is officially here.

The year begins with a PGA Tour signature event in The Sentry, Jan. 4-7, from the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii.

It is a 59-player field with only winners from the previous season, as well as the top 50 finishers in the FedEx Cup standings qualifying. The only player who qualified but is not playing is Rory McIlroy.

Historically, the event has seen some very low scores as it is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour. In fact, the winning score has been 22-under or better in seven of the last eight years.

Although the course plays to 7,596 yards, elevation changes make it play a lot shorter. It is also a par-73, with just three par-3s and four par-5s. These elevation changes allow for some of the longest drives in PGA Tour history to occur this week.

Players who can play well on the par-5s and make a lot of birdies are the ones who have the best chance of finishing high on the leaderboard. It’s also a week to fade players who are making their tournament debut. 

Historically, these players have not done well in the past, and it can be somewhat challenging adjusting to tournament play after a long layoff as well as the time change.

Scottie Scheffler (+550) has the best odds to win. In his two previous starts here, he’s finished T-13 and T-7.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week.

*Odds as of Jan. 2.

The Sentry Prediction

Scheffler is expected to win The Sentry with a 20% implied probability, according to betting markets. Viktor Hovland follows at 11.11%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

The Sentry Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +550 Odds to Win

Going into the year, Scheffler is the best player on the PGA Tour right now, coming off a win at Tiger Woods’ event in the Bahamas the last time he teed it up. He’s one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour, and if his putting is what it was last month, he will be tough to beat. 

He’s yet to finish in the top five at this event, but it is worth noting 10 of the last 11 winners at this tournament have either won the Masters or logged a top-five finish.

Collin Morikawa +1200 Odds to Win

Morikawa will be seeking revenge for last year when he lost a six-stroke lead entering the final round. He’s played very well at Kapalua in the past, which includes a T-5 and two T-7s.

He also won last fall at the ZOZO Championship, so he enters the new year with good vibes.

The Sentry Sleeper Picks

Cam Davis +6600 Odds to Win

Davis had a great end to the 2023 season, finishing with seven top 15s in his last nine starts worldwide.

The 28-year-old finished T-10 in his only past start at this event in 2022, so he’s proven he can perform here.

Tom Hoge +12500 Odds to Win

Yes, it is a long shot, but Hoge has proven in the past he can make birdies in bunches and finished T-3 here a year ago thanks to a final round 64.

The 2023 season wasn’t as kind to Hoge as 2022 was, so he’ll be looking to get off to a hot start in 2024.

The Sentry Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Collin Morikawa Outright Win +1200
• Sungjae Im Outright Win +3000
• Cam Davis Outright Win +6600 
• Max Homa Top-10 Finish +100
• Tom Kim Top-10 Finish  +188
• Tom Hoge Top-10 Finish +600

This week I’m going with a deeper card than I did in the fall while relying on my Fantasy National model.

Morikawa was always going to be a play for me, even though he comes in at No. 13 in my model. Im came in at No. 20, but he has three career top 15 finishes here, so course history outweighed the model. Meanwhile, Davis ranked much higher than expected.

In terms of props, I leaned on past history at the tournament and my model.

Here are my Fantasy National model rankings:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Wyndham Clark
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Eric Cole
5. Rickie Fowler
6. Justin Rose
7. Cam Davis
8. Tom Kim
9. Ludvig Aberg
10. Luke List