Zurich Classic of New Orleans Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Rory McIlroy returns to competitive golf this week.

As if trying to beat the Masters Champion and three-time winner already this year wasn’t enough of an obstacle for his peers, he’ll have some help in the name of the fourth-ranked player in the Zurich Classic field.

Shane Lowry joins McIlroy to defend their title in the PGA Tour’s only team event and if that doesn’t seem fair, well, maybe it’s not, but players get to choose their own partners and asking a talented buddy to join forces seems like a bright idea.

The McIlroy/Lowry duo will again be the team to beat in New Orleans, where we should rely less on statistical analysis and more on vibes.

Since this tournament became a team event in 2017, I’ve always had a soft spot – both in my heart and my wallet – for those with some built-in camaraderie before they arrive. I’d rather take college teammates than a pair of guys whose agents played matchmaker. I prefer besties over casual acquaintances. Hell, we’ve got a couple of guys who were in their mother’s womb together, so there should be a little connection there.

It’s also tough to avoid those tandems near the top of the board.

Part of this is due to the format. The natural thought process might be to back the most volatile teams, knowing that birdies are necessary and bogeys can be canceled out by a partner’s score, but the best-ball format is only employed during the first and third rounds of the tournament. Such volatility often takes its toll in the second and final rounds, when they’ll compete in alternate shot. The yin and yang of the two different scoring structures simply offers an edge to the better teams.

Then there’s the oversimplified idea that there’s strength in numbers.

Look at it this way: If beating one really good player is a difficult proposition for an average player, then beating two really good players should be an even more difficult proposition for two average players.

That’s the easiest explanation for why the last five champions have all been inside of 40/1 pre-tournament and four of the five have been 16/1 or shorter.

Surprise duos have climbed the leaderboard and played well here – Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer, who lost in a playoff last year, might be the greatest example – but the winners are frequently those who would’ve been on a short list entering the week anyway.

That said, let’s hope the McIlroy celebration bleeds into this week, as we try to avoid the faves (+350) – not to mention the teams of Collin Morikawa/Kurt Kitayama (+1200) and Thomas Detry/Robert MacIntyre (+1800) — and instead look just a little further down the board for some outright picks.

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Sahith Theegala/Aaron Rai (+2500)

This pairing serves as such an interesting dynamic, because each player wants to impress his Ryder Cup captain by thriving in a partnered competition – except they’re trying to impress different Ryder Cup captains. Theegala was a trendy pick at the beginning of the year, but it’s been a verrrry slow start, with no result better than T-17 in a dozen tournaments so far. He likely wishes he could pinpoint the problem; like a two-way miss, though, his issues are consistently inconsistent. The hope here is that the best-ball rounds free him up to make birdies and the alternate shot rounds hide whichever inconsistency is lurking this week.

As for Rai, he isn’t just vying to make the other Ryder Cup side, he’s also just about the most contrarian player from Theegala that we’d be able to find. The Englishman is solid, consistent, hits a lot of fairways and greens, and unlike his partner, he’s played some decent golf this year, with four results better than Theegala’s best. I’ve always believed that opposites attract in best-ball, though not alternate shot, so I’m banking on a strong start leading to some momentum, especially for the player who’s barely enjoyed any of it this season. 

Aggressive: Max McGreevy/Sam Stevens (+4500)

Full disclosure: I initially had the team of Gary Woodland and Lee Hodges in this spot, but a late WD from Woodland meant Jason Dufner subbed in, and it meant I went back to the drawing board. Instead, let’s go with a hungry team with both players searching for their first career win. In fact, McGreevy/Stevens remind me of the team of Davis Riley/Nick Hardy, who won this tournament two years ago for their first titles.

Forget camaraderie, I love the idea of an Oklahoma Sooner and an Oklahoma State Cowboy banding together while potentially trash-talking each other as teammates. What I love even more is these are two up-and-comers with a ton of upside. Neither has been playing his best golf as of late, but at this price, I like backing them on the idea that it should be a strong week. 

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Keith Mitchell/J.T. Poston (+375)

Not gonna lie: As the worldwide leader in losing outright bets on Mitchell over the past five years, I was licking my chops at the prospect of picking him alongside a partner in this one. After all, he loves this format, having been fourth with Brandt Snedeker, sixth with Sungjae Im and 28th with Joel Dahmen. Now he gets Poston, who’s been very good with his irons this year and is trending nicely with the putter lately. The only thing keeping me from having this pairing outright is a shorter number in that market (+1800) than the two listed above, but I likely won’t be able to pass on Mitchell/Poston, either.

Aggressive: Ben Griffin/Andrew Novak (+400)

Some playoff losses at the highest level of professional golf are more heartbreaking than others. It’s tough to imagine Novak wallowing in his sorrow after losing to a Justin Thomas birdie on the first playoff hole. His game has progressed in a big way this year and he’s earned a lot of fans with his faster pace and everyman attitude. Paired with Griffin this week, they’re each on a short list of best current players without a victory. Don’t expect them to be too far off the pace this week.

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Nicolai Hojgaard/Rasmus Hojgaard (+300)

The fun thing here is that they can dress in the same outfit and if one twin has his game and the other doesn’t, well, who’s gonna know if one of ‘em hits every shot? OK, so cheating might not be a viable option this week, but I can guarantee you’re not going to find a pairing who knows each other like this one. This might be the ultimate referendum on just how much a connection between partners really means. We’ve seen brothers compete together in the past (and this week) where one served as the more dominant player, but the Hojgaards have toggled back and forth in recent years as to which one has been better. This is an excellent opportunity for them to win for the first time at the exact same moment.

Aggressive: Jacob Bridgeman/Chandler Phillips (+375)

Much as I wrote about the McGreevy/Stevens pairing above, I like the idea of chasing teammates who can really change the trajectory of their careers with a big week. There will be plenty of birdies made this week, especially in the best-ball format, and leaning on Bridgeman as the fifth-ranked player in SG: Putting makes some sense.

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Laurie Canter/Jordan Smith (market not yet available)

Never underestimate the power of motivation – and these two have more to play for than a lot of others in this field. Just a year ago, Canter was in professional golf purgatory, having left LIV Golf, but with no status anywhere else. He won on the DP World Tour and gained enough points that he was top-50 in the world and played in this year’s Masters. Smith is a longtime DP World regular who (I’m guessing) likely has designs on playing in the U.S. more frequently if he can claim full status. Fresh off a runner-up finish in China, he might be tired when he gets to New Orleans, but his form might travel, too.

Aggressive: Trey Mullinax/Robby Shelton (market not yet available)

Very sneaky tandem here, as Mullinax’s name has been showing up on some leaderboards over the past few months, even if he’s not there on Sunday evening, while Shelton is fresh off his second top-10 of the season on the Korn Ferry circuit. I’m intrigued by the power of Mullinax teamed with the short game of Shelton.

Zurich Classic of New Orleans First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Nico Echavarria/Max Greyserman (+3300)

Justin Thomas broke a drought last week at the RBC Heritage, becoming the first player in 19 events to parlay a first-round lead or share of the lead into a victory three days later. I’ve said it before, but this should only enforce the idea that holding FRL honors isn’t unlike leading an NBA game after the first quarter, which is to say, it’s probably better to be winning than playing from behind, but in the end it’s hardly a massive determining factor. That said, while I don’t mind Echavarria/Greyserman for a four-round investment, I love the offensive firepower available in Thursday’s best-ball format to allow them to go low.

Aggressive: Ryo Hisatsune/Takumi Kanaya (+6000)

Very quietly, Hisatsune now owns top-10s in two of his last four and top-20s in four of his last seven, as he’s consistently been above field average in just about every major statistical category during most of those weeks. Kanaya is a former No. 1-ranked amateur who’s struggled at the professional level and while I like these guys for a FRL play, I’ll admit that they’re probably better suited for the alternate-shot rounds than best-ball