- Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- Hosts Arsenal earned a 1-0 win in the previous meeting with Bees.
- The case for Brentford’s attack exploiting Arsenal’s dominant defense.
It’s a London Derby at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. Below, bettors can find my Arsenal vs. Brentford prediction.
Arsenal thrashed Sheffield United 6-0 on Monday and now return home, where they’ve notched 10 wins in 13 games this season.
As for Brentford, they captured a point in a 2-2 home draw with Chelsea last weekend.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my play for the fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Brentford
- Arsenal Moneyline: -400
- Brentford Moneyline: +1100
- Draw Moneyline: +550
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Brentford
LEAN Arsenal to Win & Both Teams to Score (+165, Bet at +190 or Better)
Arsenal’s defense is easily the best in Europe, but it wouldn’t shock me if this is a sleepy spot for them.
Starting goalkeeper David Raya isn’t eligible to face his parent club Brentford and will be replaced by Aaron Ramsdale, who has made only five Premier League starts this season.
In those five games, Arsenal have kept only two clean sheets.
One such clean sheet came at Brentford, but the Bees came mighty close to scoring.
Ramsdale gave the ball away in Arsenal’s penalty area, and Brentford striker Yoanne Wissa had his shot cleared off the line.
All told, manager Thomas Frank’s side created 1.12 expected goals in that match despite failing to score.
Plus, Brentford operated without talisman Ivan Toney in that match. Since returning Toney to the lineup, Brentford have scored in seven of eight matches.
Slightly concerning is that the lone failure came at Manchester City, the closest comparison to this Arsenal defense, which has allowed only 0.63 npxG per 90 minutes this season.
That’s why I need a higher price on this market before deciding whether to get involved.
However, it’s worth noting Arsenal have conceded in three straight games against teams averaging north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals.
All that said don’t expect a shock result for Brentford on Saturday.
Arsenal have dropped points in only three home matches this season, two of which were undeserved based on non-penalty expected goals.
Plus, Arsenal is 24-8 SU at home since the beginning of last season. When they’re facing a team they beat in the previous head-to-head meeting, they’re 12-4 SU.
As a result, take the Bees to score and lose Saturday’s London derby. Bet if the price reaches +190 or better.
Arsenal Form
March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W
Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W
Feb. 21 at FC Porto: 0-1, L (Champions League)
Feb. 17 at Burnley: 5-0, W
Feb. 11 at West Ham United: 6-0, W
Brentford Form
March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L
Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 0-1, L
Feb. 17 vs. Liverpool: 1-4, L
Feb. 10 at Wolves: 2-0, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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