Arsenal vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta speaks to the players while Gabriel Jesus, right, gestures to the crowd during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Brighton and Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium in London, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 08, 2024, 9:49 AM
  • Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • Hosts Arsenal earned a 1-0 win in the previous meeting with Bees.
  • The case for Brentford’s attack exploiting Arsenal’s dominant defense.

It’s a London Derby at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. Below, bettors can find my Arsenal vs. Brentford prediction. 

Arsenal thrashed Sheffield United 6-0 on Monday and now return home, where they’ve notched 10 wins in 13 games this season. 

As for Brentford, they captured a point in a 2-2 home draw with Chelsea last weekend. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my play for the fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Brentford

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -400
  • Brentford Moneyline: +1100
  • Draw Moneyline: +550
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Brentford

LEAN Arsenal to Win & Both Teams to Score (+165, Bet at +190 or Better)

Arsenal’s defense is easily the best in Europe, but it wouldn’t shock me if this is a sleepy spot for them. 

Starting goalkeeper David Raya isn’t eligible to face his parent club Brentford and will be replaced by Aaron Ramsdale, who has made only five Premier League starts this season. 

In those five games, Arsenal have kept only two clean sheets. 

One such clean sheet came at Brentford, but the Bees came mighty close to scoring. 

Ramsdale gave the ball away in Arsenal’s penalty area, and Brentford striker Yoanne Wissa had his shot cleared off the line. 

All told, manager Thomas Frank’s side created 1.12 expected goals in that match despite failing to score. 

Plus, Brentford operated without talisman Ivan Toney in that match. Since returning Toney to the lineup, Brentford have scored in seven of eight matches. 

Slightly concerning is that the lone failure came at Manchester City, the closest comparison to this Arsenal defense, which has allowed only 0.63 npxG per 90 minutes this season. 

That’s why I need a higher price on this market before deciding whether to get involved. 

However, it’s worth noting Arsenal have conceded in three straight games against teams averaging north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals. 

All that said don’t expect a shock result for Brentford on Saturday. 

Arsenal have dropped points in only three home matches this season, two of which were undeserved based on non-penalty expected goals. 

Plus, Arsenal is 24-8 SU at home since the beginning of last season. When they’re facing a team they beat in the previous head-to-head meeting, they’re 12-4 SU. 

As a result, take the Bees to score and lose Saturday’s London derby. Bet if the price reaches +190 or better. 

Arsenal Form 

March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W

Feb. 24 vs. Newcastle United: 4-1, W

Feb. 21 at FC Porto: 0-1, L (Champions League)

Feb. 17 at Burnley: 5-0, W

Feb. 11 at West Ham United: 6-0, W

Brentford Form

March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L

Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 0-1, L

Feb. 17 vs. Liverpool: 1-4, L

Feb. 10 at Wolves: 2-0, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Luton TownBrentfordApr. 2010:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedBurnleyApr. 2010:00 AMBramall Lane
WolvesArsenalApr. 202:30 PMMolineux Stadium
EvertonNottingham ForestApr. 218:30 AMGoodison Park
Aston VillaBournemouthApr. 2110:00 AMVilla Park
Crystal PalaceWest Ham UnitedApr. 2110:00 AMSelhurst Park
FulhamLiverpoolApr. 2111:30 AMCraven Cottage

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.