- Manchester City is a -0.5 goal road favorite against Aston Villa.
- City have drawn three straight EPL matches and sit third in the table.
- Aston Villa received a drubbing in the last meeting, but play incredibly at home.
Before Wednesday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide an Aston Villa vs. Manchester City prediction.
City have experienced a dip in form, dropping points in each of their last three matches. That leaves Pep Guardiola’s side third in the table.
As for Aston Villa, they currently occupy the final Champions League spot and are a perfect 6-0 straight up at home this season.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Wednesday’s encounter at Villa Park.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Odds
- Aston Villa to Win: +320
- Manchester City to Win: -135
- Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Draw: +320
- The Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Over/Under is 3.5 Goals
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Aston Villa vs. Manchester City is Manchester City Moneyline (-135).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Disclaimer: wait for lineups to bet on this. I need City to feature a front-five of Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku, Bernardo Silva, Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden to make it a play.
With that established, this is a tricky match to handicap.
On the one hand, Villa have won 13 straight games at Villa Park. However, bettors have yet to see how they play under Unai Emery at home against Manchester City.
The last time these sides met, City proved dominant.
Albeit at home, they won the match 3-1 while earning a 3.36-0.27 win on expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Across two head-to-head meetings last season, City produced a 5.46-0.61 margin on expected goals.
Despite Villa’s home dominance, they’ve yet to face a side on City’s level.
The closest match is Brighton & Hove Albion, whom Villa defeated 6-1. However, they lost the expected goals battle 1.7-1.6.
Now they have to face a City side that has come up very unlucky recently.
Although they’ve drawn their last two matches, Pep Guardiola’s side has a +2.91 expected goal differential and a +2.13 post-shot expected goal differential.
Additionally, since the 2017-18 season, City is 49-8 straight up when they’re coming off a draw OR defeat.
Despite their 1-3 record in such spots this season, they finished 17-1 straight up in those situations over the last two seasons.
Back City to earn all three points accordingly.
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