- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- Villa earned a 2-1 road win in the reverse fixture, but both teams had players sent off.
- Why bettors should look to a Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s clash.
Looking to recover from their midweek defeat to Manchester City, Aston Villa welcome Brentford to Villa Park.
Manager Unai Emery’s side is attempting to hang onto the final Champions League spot. Currently, they sit two points clear of Tottenham, who have played one fewer game.
As for Brentford, they’ve struggled to pick up outright wins lately. They haven’t won outright since February 10, but they enter Saturday’s game having drawn two in a row.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brentford
- Aston Villa Moneyline: -155
- Brentford Moneyline: +375
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brentford
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-146)
Disclaimer: in order to justify laying this price, Ollie Watkins needs to be in the lineup for Aston Villa.
Although it’s a high price to lay, there’s good evidence supporting a high-scoring game in Birmingham on Saturday.
Rarely do teams keep Villa out at home, especially when they’re a favorite.
Since the beginning of last season, Aston Villa has closed a home favorite 26 times. In those contests, they’ve managed at least two goals 18 times.
Saturday’s hosts are also particularly good at finding the back of the net when they’re coming off a draw or loss.
Under manager Unai Emery, Villa have closed a home favorite 12 times immediately following a game in which they failed to win.
In those games, they’ve scored at least twice 10 times and have never failed to score.
That said, Brentford are a dangerous counter-attacking outfit that can exploit Villa’s high line.
The Bees offense is also markedly underrated as they sit eighth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 this season.
Since reincorporating Ivan Toney into the Starting XI, Brentford have failed to score twice in 12 fixtures – vs. Brighton and Manchester City, both of which sit fifth or better in npxGA per 90.
Villa is a bottom-half defense by npxG per 90 minutes and struggles to defend set pieces, a hallmark of Brentford’s attack.
That should easily allow Brentford to find the net at least once and I could see a scenario where they clear 1.5 goals in this match.
Either way, expect ample attacking threats at Villa Park on Saturday.
Aston Villa Form
April 3 at Man City: 1-4, L
March 30 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
March 17 at West Ham: 1-1, D
March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)
March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L
Brentford Form
April 3 vs. Brighton: 0-0, D
March 30 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D
March 16 at Burnley: 1-2, L
March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L
March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Fulham | Everton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Brentford | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Southampton | Manchester City | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Brighton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | May. 10 | 12:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Chelsea | May. 11 | 7 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leicester City | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester United | West Ham United | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Liverpool | Arsenal | May. 11 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-3 | 82 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-4 | 67 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-7-9 | 64 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-7-10 | 61 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 17-9-9 | 60 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-10 | 53 | 12 |
| Brentford | 15-7-13 | 52 | 9 |
| Brighton | 13-14-8 | 52 | 1 |
| Fulham | 14-9-12 | 51 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-13-11 | 46 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-18 | 41 | -11 |
| Everton | 8-15-12 | 39 | -7 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-16 | 39 | -9 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-19 | 38 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-10-16 | 37 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-21 | 22 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 5-6-24 | 21 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-5-28 | 11 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-17-6 | 42.9% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 19-14-2 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-2 | 65.7% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 19-15-1 | 55.7% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 13-19-3 | 41.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-12-6 | 57.1% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-2 | 42.9% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-17-2 | 48.6% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-23-0 | 34.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-17-4 | 45.7% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 20-14-1 | 58.6% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-13-0 | 62.9% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 12-19-4 | 40.0% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-21-1 | 38.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 17-16-2 | 51.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-13-3 | 58.6% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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