Aston Villa vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring his second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 05, 2024, 5:18 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • Villa earned a 2-1 road win in the reverse fixture, but both teams had players sent off.
  • Why bettors should look to a Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s clash.

Looking to recover from their midweek defeat to Manchester City, Aston Villa welcome Brentford to Villa Park. 

Manager Unai Emery’s side is attempting to hang onto the final Champions League spot. Currently, they sit two points clear of Tottenham, who have played one fewer game. 

As for Brentford, they’ve struggled to pick up outright wins lately. They haven’t won outright since February 10, but they enter Saturday’s game having drawn two in a row. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brentford

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: -155
  • Brentford Moneyline: +375
  • Draw Moneyline: +320
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brentford

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-146)

Disclaimer: in order to justify laying this price, Ollie Watkins needs to be in the lineup for Aston Villa. 

Although it’s a high price to lay, there’s good evidence supporting a high-scoring game in Birmingham on Saturday. 

Rarely do teams keep Villa out at home, especially when they’re a favorite. 

Since the beginning of last season, Aston Villa has closed a home favorite 26 times. In those contests, they’ve managed at least two goals 18 times. 

Saturday’s hosts are also particularly good at finding the back of the net when they’re coming off a draw or loss. 

Under manager Unai Emery, Villa have closed a home favorite 12 times immediately following a game in which they failed to win. 

In those games, they’ve scored at least twice 10 times and have never failed to score. 

That said, Brentford are a dangerous counter-attacking outfit that can exploit Villa’s high line. 

The Bees offense is also markedly underrated as they sit eighth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 this season. 

Since reincorporating Ivan Toney into the Starting XI, Brentford have failed to score twice in 12 fixtures – vs. Brighton and Manchester City, both of which sit fifth or better in npxGA per 90. 

Villa is a bottom-half defense by npxG per 90 minutes and struggles to defend set pieces, a hallmark of Brentford’s attack. 

That should easily allow Brentford to find the net at least once and I could see a scenario where they clear 1.5 goals in this match. 

Either way, expect ample attacking threats at Villa Park on Saturday. 

Aston Villa Form 

April 3 at Man City: 1-4, L

March 30 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W

March 17 at West Ham: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L

Brentford Form

April 3 vs. Brighton: 0-0, D

March 30 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D

March 16 at Burnley: 1-2, L

March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L

March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.