Bournemouth vs. Southampton Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Nick Hennion Sep 25, 2024, 12:22 PM

min read

Bournemouth's Antoine Semenyo during the English Premier League soccer match between Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, at The Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, England, Tuesday, April 2, 2024.

(AP Photo/Dave Shopland)

Bournemouth is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Southampton.
Since last season, Bournemouth is 11-6 SU as a favorite.
I predict Bournemouth will earn all three points on Monday.

On the heels of two consecutive league losses, Bournemouth hosts a standalone match on Monday against lowly Southampton.

The Cherries fell 3-0 at Liverpool on Matchday 4 after losing 1-0 at home to Chelsea the previous week.

Southampton’s results haven’t been favorable either. Their Matchday 4 draw against Ipswich marked their first league point following three straight losses.

Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Southampton prediction.

Bournemouth vs. Southampton Odds, Premier League

Bournemouth Moneyline: -165
Southampton Moneyline: +400
Draw Moneyline: +320
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
Both Teams to Score: Yes (-175), No (+120)

Bournemouth vs. Southampton Prediction: Moneyline

My prediction for Bournemouth vs. Southampton is the Bournemouth Moneyline (-165).

This is a brilliant buy-low spot on Bournemouth, which has run unlucky at home and now gets the worst team in the league.

In home matches against Newcastle United and Chelsea, Bournemouth has a -1 goal differential. However, it comes against a +1.6 expected goal differential.

On Monday, they get a Southampton defense that provides zero resistance.

In their last three league matches against Ipswich Town, Manchester United and Brentford, Southampton has allowed 10.25 post-shot expected goals.

Even if you just look at their matches against Ipswich Town and Brentford, Southampton still allowed 6.2 post-shot expected goals.

Right now, the assumption has to be that Southampton will allow north of three post-shot xG until proven otherwise.

While Bournemouth are 19th in post-shot xG allowed, they’ve faced a brutal schedule so far. Yet, they’re still sixth in the corresponding offensive category.

Bournemouth also matches two historically profitable systems.

Since 2012, home favorites between -235 and -110 that closed an underdog in their previous game are 65% SU against a team that closed a favorite in their last game.

Additionally, home favorites between -230 and +105 off a loss by three or more goals are 68% SU, including 34-12 when the opponent closed a favorite in their last game.

Take the Cherries to earn all three points on Monday.