- Bournemouth is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Southampton.
- Since last season, Bournemouth is 11-6 SU as a favorite.
- I predict Bournemouth will earn all three points on Monday.
On the heels of two consecutive league losses, Bournemouth hosts a standalone match on Monday against lowly Southampton.
The Cherries fell 3-0 at Liverpool on Matchday 4 after losing 1-0 at home to Chelsea the previous week.
Southampton’s results haven’t been favorable either. Their Matchday 4 draw against Ipswich marked their first league point following three straight losses.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Southampton prediction.
Bournemouth vs. Southampton Odds, Premier League
- Bournemouth Moneyline: -165
- Southampton Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-175), No (+120)
Bournemouth vs. Southampton Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for Bournemouth vs. Southampton is the Bournemouth Moneyline (-165).
This is a brilliant buy-low spot on Bournemouth, which has run unlucky at home and now gets the worst team in the league.
In home matches against Newcastle United and Chelsea, Bournemouth has a -1 goal differential. However, it comes against a +1.6 expected goal differential.
On Monday, they get a Southampton defense that provides zero resistance.
In their last three league matches against Ipswich Town, Manchester United and Brentford, Southampton has allowed 10.25 post-shot expected goals.
Even if you just look at their matches against Ipswich Town and Brentford, Southampton still allowed 6.2 post-shot expected goals.
Right now, the assumption has to be that Southampton will allow north of three post-shot xG until proven otherwise.
While Bournemouth are 19th in post-shot xG allowed, they’ve faced a brutal schedule so far. Yet, they’re still sixth in the corresponding offensive category.
Bournemouth also matches two historically profitable systems.
Since 2012, home favorites between -235 and -110 that closed an underdog in their previous game are 65% SU against a team that closed a favorite in their last game.
Additionally, home favorites between -230 and +105 off a loss by three or more goals are 68% SU, including 34-12 when the opponent closed a favorite in their last game.
Take the Cherries to earn all three points on Monday.
Bournemouth Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 21 at Liverpool: 0-3, L
- Sept. 14 vs. Chelsea: 0-1, L
- Aug. 31 at Everton: 3-2, W
- Aug. 28 at West Ham: 0-1, L (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 25 vs. Newcastle United: 1-1, D
Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 21 vs. Ipswich Town: 1-1, D
- Sept. 17 at Everton: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Everton Advance)
- Sept. 14 vs. Manchester United: 0-3, L
- Aug. 31 at Brentford: 1-3, L
- Aug. 28 at Cardiff: 5-3, W (EFL Cup)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Bournemouth odds and Southampton odds!
EPL Early Payout
When betting on EPL Match Result odds, you can receive an early payout if your team takes a 2-0 lead.
Check your Promotions for more info!
