- Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
- Brentford earned a 3-0 road win against Fulham back on Matchday 2.
- History suggests one side is undervalued for Saturday’s fixture.
It’s a London derby at the Gtech Community Stadium, with Brentford set to host Fulham on Saturday.
Both teams dropped points in their last fixtures. The Bees traveled to Everton and fell 1-0 as road favorites while Fulham surrendered a late goal to Crystal Palace to draw 1-1.
The last time these sides met, Brentford handed Fulham a 3-0 defeat at Craven Cottage. However, two goals came whilst playing up a man.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Fulham
- Brentford Moneyline: +110
- Fulham Moneyline: +220
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)
EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Fulham
Brentford Moneyline (+110)
This is your classic buy-low spot on Brentford.
Even if you only sample the part of their Matchday 2 trip to Fulham where they played 11v11, bettors will find Brentford dominated.
They created 1.18 expected goals in those first 63 minutes while holding Fulham to only 0.35 expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Now they get to face a Fulham defense that has struggled in their recent road fixtures.
Sample the Cottages’ six previous road matches, and bettors will find they’ve allowed at least 1.5 expected goals four times.
Plus, one of their successes came against a West Ham side playing on short rest, so I expect Brentford’s offensive output will prove closer to 1.5 than to one xG.
This also remains a Brentford side that enters Saturday’s fixture a major positive regression candidate, particularly at home.
Manager Thomas Frank’s side owns a -8 goal differential this season compared to a +4.7 expected goal differential.
At home, it’s a -3 goal differential compared to a +4 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Brentford also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2018-19 season, favorites sitting between +140 and -300 off a defeat are 147-79 SU, assuming they won the previous head-to-head meeting.
This season, those favorites are 27-11 SU.
When their opponent failed to win their previous game, those teams improve to 99-52 SU, including 19-11 SU this season.
For those reasons, back the Bees as home favorites on Saturday.
Brentford Form
April 27 at Everton: 0-1, L
April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W
April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W
April 6 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D
April 3 vs. Brighton: 0-0, D
Fulham Form
April 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
April 21 vs. Liverpool: 1-3, L
April 14 at West Ham United: 2-0, W
April 6 vs. Newcastle United: 0-1, L
April 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-4 | 67 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-7-9 | 64 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-10 | 60 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 17-9-9 | 60 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-10 | 53 | 12 |
| Fulham | 14-9-12 | 51 | 3 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Brentford | 14-7-13 | 49 | 8 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-18 | 41 | -11 |
| Everton | 8-15-12 | 39 | -7 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-21 | 22 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 5-6-24 | 21 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-5-28 | 11 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-17-6 | 42.9% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 19-14-2 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 21-11-2 | 64.7% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-12-6 | 57.1% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-2 | 42.9% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-23-0 | 34.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-13-0 | 61.8% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-19-4 | 40.0% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-13-3 | 58.6% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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