Brentford vs. Southampton Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

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Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo runs into position during the English Premier League soccer match between Brentford and Crystal Palace, at the Gtech Community Stadium in London, Sunday, Aug. 18, 2024.
(AP Photo/Dave Shopland)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Aug 30, 2024, 12:48 PM
  • Brentford is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Southampton.
  • Brentford has won three straight meetings against Southampton.
  • I predict the likeliest outcome is a Brentford victory.

Brentford will look to capture their second home win of the season on Saturday as they welcome Southampton to London.ย 

Both teams enter this match off Matchday 2 defeats. Southampton fell 1-0 as home favorites to Nottingham Forest, while Brentford lost 2-0 at Liverpool.ย 

The good news for Brentford? Theyโ€™ve historically dominated this series, winning three straight meetings.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturdayโ€™s fixture.ย 

Brentford vs. Southampton Odds, Premier League

  • Brentford Moneyline: -135
  • Southampton Moneyline: +340
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-155/+110)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-155), No (+110)

Brentford vs. Southampton Prediction: Game Spread

If forced to make a prediction, I would back the Brentford moneyline (-135). However, itโ€™s strictly a lean for me as this feels like a trap.ย 

I can make a case for both sides but with caveats attached to each that lead me to other bets on the board.ย 

The case for Brentford is stronger.ย 

The Bees have historically dominated Southampton. Over the last three meetings, Thomas Frankโ€™s team owns a +8 goal differential and a +6.86 expected goal differential.ย 

Thereโ€™s also a historically profitable system supporting a bet on the hosts.ย 

Since 2012, favorites priced between -199 and +106 are 68.5% SU when both teams lost their last game, and the favorite posted between a +0 and +4 margin in the last head-to-head.ย 

When those teams failed to score in their last game, they improve to 70% SU, including 73% at home.ย 

The issue? Itโ€™s generally better fading teams that closed as underdogs in their last game. That designation doesnโ€™t fit Southampton.ย 

Visitors Southampton also fit a historically profitable system outlined in my EPL predictions. However, it also comes with a caveat.ย 

The system generally works better with road underdogs. However, those road underdogs produce a higher return on investment against home teams off results.ย 

In fact, the ROI percentage of visiting underdogs against teams off a loss between one and three goals is only 2.2%.ย 

Based on conflicting reports, this match is an easy pass with a slight lean to Brentford.ย 

Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 25 at Liverpool: 0-2, L
  • Aug. 17 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
  • Aug. 9 vs. Wolfsburg: 4-4, D (Friendly)
  • Aug. 3 at Watford: 1-1, D (Friendly)
  • July 25 at Benfica: 1-1, D (Friendly)

Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Aug. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 0-1, L
  • Aug. 17 at Newcastle United: 0-1, L
  • Aug. 10 vs. Getafe: 0-0, D (Friendly)
  • Aug. 7 vs. Lazio: 1-1, D (Friendly)
  • Aug. 3 at Millwall: 1-0, W (Friendly)

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Brentford odds and Southampton odds!

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667
EPL Odds

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.