- Arsenal is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Arsenal have won two of the last three against Brighton.
- Bettors should play this same game parlay for Saturday’s clash.
As they continue their title challenge this season, Arsenal travel to England’s south coast to battle Brighton & Hove Albion.
Both teams earned positive results in their midweek fixtures. Arsenal cruised 2-0 at home against Luton Town, while Brighton captured a point as road dogs to Brentford.
The last time these sides met, Arsenal managed an easy 2-0 win over Brighton. That marks their second win in three over Brighton.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Brighton
- Arsenal Moneyline: -160
- Brighton Moneyline: +380
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over Price/Under Price)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Brighton
Same Game Parlay: Arsenal +0.5 & Under 3.5 Goals (-110)
This total is way too high in a match featuring two outstanding league defenses.
Arsenal leads the way in the Premier League in terms of non-penalty expected goals against. To date, they’ve allowed only 0.65 npxGA per 90, per fbref.com.
Not only is that the best mark in the Premier League – it’s the best defensive record across all of Europe’s top-five leagues.
When these sides met last, Arsenal limited Brighton to only 0.7 xG, one big scoring chance, and only one shot on target, per fotmob.com.
They’ve also proved a dominant road defense. Entering Saturday’s match, manager Mikel Arteta’s side has conceded only 10.9 road expected goals against.
At the same time, this Brighton defense is no joke.
The Seagulls rank fifth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90, per fbref.com.
Although they conceded 2.4 xG to Arsenal at the Emirates, this Arsenal side sees a massive drop-off in offensive production away from home.
The Gooners have created 2.17 xG per 90 at home compared to only 1.71 on the road.
They’ve also run very lucky on the road recently against worse defenses, scoring 11 goals off 4.6 expected at Sheffield United and Burnley.
That tells me this game will finish under 3.5 goals with relative ease.
At the same time, Arsenal fit a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2021-22, road favorites off a multi-goal win that won the previous head-to-head meeting by two or more goals are 32-13 SU, assuming the team has a win percentage north of 52%.
Those teams have dropped all three points only five times in those 45 matches, so expect a result for the visitors on Saturday.
Arsenal Form
April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W
March 31 at Man City: 0-0, D
March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)
March 9 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
March 4 at Sheffield United: 6-0, W
Brighton Form
April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D
March 31 at Liverpool: 1-2, L
March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W
March 7 at Roma: 0-4, L (Europa League)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Fulham | Everton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Brentford | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Southampton | Manchester City | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Brighton | May. 10 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Bournemouth | Aston Villa | May. 10 | 12:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Chelsea | May. 11 | 7 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leicester City | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester United | West Ham United | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | May. 11 | 9:15 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Liverpool | Arsenal | May. 11 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-3 | 82 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-4 | 67 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-7-9 | 64 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-7-10 | 61 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 17-9-9 | 60 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-10 | 53 | 12 |
| Brentford | 15-7-13 | 52 | 9 |
| Brighton | 13-14-8 | 52 | 1 |
| Fulham | 14-9-12 | 51 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-13-11 | 46 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-18 | 41 | -11 |
| Everton | 8-15-12 | 39 | -7 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-16 | 39 | -9 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-19 | 38 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-10-16 | 37 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-21 | 22 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 5-6-24 | 21 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-5-28 | 11 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-17-6 | 42.9% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 19-14-2 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-2 | 65.7% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 19-15-1 | 55.7% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 13-19-3 | 41.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-12-6 | 57.1% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-13-4 | 57.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-2 | 42.9% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 16-18-1 | 47.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-17-2 | 48.6% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-23-0 | 34.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-17-4 | 45.7% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 20-14-1 | 58.6% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-13-0 | 62.9% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 12-19-4 | 40.0% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-21-1 | 38.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 17-16-2 | 51.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-13-3 | 58.6% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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