- Brighton is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Brighton earned all three points in three of the last four against United.
- I predict Brighton will do no worse than a draw on Saturday.
Fresh off a dominant road win at Everton, Brighton welcome Manchester United to the South Coast on Saturday.
In their debut match under manager Fabian Huerzler, the Seagulls earned a 3-0 road win as favorites.
Manchester United also started strong. A late Joshua Zirkzee tally vs. Fulham gave the Red Devils a 1-0 home win.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Brighton vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League
- Brighton Moneyline: +145
- Manchester United Moneyline: +160
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-200), No (+140)
Brighton vs. Manchester United Prediction: Game Spread
My prediction for Saturday’s fixture is Brighton Draw, No Bet (-120).
The Seagulls, who have historically dominated Manchester United, match a historically profitable system.
Home favorites with a win percentage north of 50% that lost the last head-to-head meeting by two or more goals are 47-25 SU since 2012.
Within that 72-game sample, those home favorites have dropped all three points only 11 times.
It gets better for Brighton.
Shrink that 72-game sample down to 18 teams that won their last game by two or more goals, and bettors will find the home teams are 13-5 SU with zero outright defeats.
Plus, Brighton bossed United in the last meeting. Despite losing 2-0, they won the expected goals battle 1.9 to 1.3.
Plus, United created 72% of their xG tally AFTER Rasmus Hojlund entered the game. Hojlund won’t play on Saturday, which will severely hamper United’s attack.
That also wasn’t a one-off performance from the Seagulls.
In their last four meetings against United, Brighton are 3-0-1 (W-D-L) and possess a +0.39 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Add in only five teams posted a worse road xGDiff per 90 last year than United, and I’ll take Brighton to do no worse than a draw.
Brighton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 at Everton: 3-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Villarreal: 4-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at QPR: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 28 at Tokyo Verdy: 4-2, W (Friendly)
- July 24 at Kashima Antlers: 5-1 W, (Friendly)
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D
- Aug. 3 at Liverpool: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- July 27 at Arsenal: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Brighton and Hove Albion odds and Manchester United odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Related Articles
EPL Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the premier online sportsbook for EPL betting throughout the year.
With EPL futures and weekly odds, including match winner odds, over/under totals, and player props, there are a variety of opportunities to bet online!
If you don’t have an account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome offer. Once you have an account, check for daily sports betting promos.
