- Brighton is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Brighton earned all three points in three of the last four against United.
- I predict Brighton will do no worse than a draw on Saturday.
Fresh off a dominant road win at Everton, Brighton welcome Manchester United to the South Coast on Saturday.
In their debut match under manager Fabian Huerzler, the Seagulls earned a 3-0 road win as favorites.
Manchester United also started strong. A late Joshua Zirkzee tally vs. Fulham gave the Red Devils a 1-0 home win.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Brighton vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League
- Brighton Moneyline: +145
- Manchester United Moneyline: +160
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-200), No (+140)
Brighton vs. Manchester United Prediction: Game Spread
My prediction for Saturday’s fixture is Brighton Draw, No Bet (-120).
The Seagulls, who have historically dominated Manchester United, match a historically profitable system.
Home favorites with a win percentage north of 50% that lost the last head-to-head meeting by two or more goals are 47-25 SU since 2012.
Within that 72-game sample, those home favorites have dropped all three points only 11 times.
It gets better for Brighton.
Shrink that 72-game sample down to 18 teams that won their last game by two or more goals, and bettors will find the home teams are 13-5 SU with zero outright defeats.
Plus, Brighton bossed United in the last meeting. Despite losing 2-0, they won the expected goals battle 1.9 to 1.3.
Plus, United created 72% of their xG tally AFTER Rasmus Hojlund entered the game. Hojlund won’t play on Saturday, which will severely hamper United’s attack.
That also wasn’t a one-off performance from the Seagulls.
In their last four meetings against United, Brighton are 3-0-1 (W-D-L) and possess a +0.39 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Add in only five teams posted a worse road xGDiff per 90 last year than United, and I’ll take Brighton to do no worse than a draw.
Brighton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 at Everton: 3-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Villarreal: 4-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at QPR: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 28 at Tokyo Verdy: 4-2, W (Friendly)
- July 24 at Kashima Antlers: 5-1 W, (Friendly)
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D
- Aug. 3 at Liverpool: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- July 27 at Arsenal: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Brighton and Hove Albion odds and Manchester United odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
| Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
| Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
| Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
| Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
| Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
| West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
| Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
| Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
| Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
| Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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