- Brighton is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Brighton earned all three points in three of the last four against United.
- I predict Brighton will do no worse than a draw on Saturday.
Fresh off a dominant road win at Everton, Brighton welcome Manchester United to the South Coast on Saturday.
In their debut match under manager Fabian Huerzler, the Seagulls earned a 3-0 road win as favorites.
Manchester United also started strong. A late Joshua Zirkzee tally vs. Fulham gave the Red Devils a 1-0 home win.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Brighton vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League
- Brighton Moneyline: +145
- Manchester United Moneyline: +160
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-200), No (+140)
Brighton vs. Manchester United Prediction: Game Spread
My prediction for Saturday’s fixture is Brighton Draw, No Bet (-120).
The Seagulls, who have historically dominated Manchester United, match a historically profitable system.
Home favorites with a win percentage north of 50% that lost the last head-to-head meeting by two or more goals are 47-25 SU since 2012.
Within that 72-game sample, those home favorites have dropped all three points only 11 times.
It gets better for Brighton.
Shrink that 72-game sample down to 18 teams that won their last game by two or more goals, and bettors will find the home teams are 13-5 SU with zero outright defeats.
Plus, Brighton bossed United in the last meeting. Despite losing 2-0, they won the expected goals battle 1.9 to 1.3.
Plus, United created 72% of their xG tally AFTER Rasmus Hojlund entered the game. Hojlund won’t play on Saturday, which will severely hamper United’s attack.
That also wasn’t a one-off performance from the Seagulls.
In their last four meetings against United, Brighton are 3-0-1 (W-D-L) and possess a +0.39 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Add in only five teams posted a worse road xGDiff per 90 last year than United, and I’ll take Brighton to do no worse than a draw.
Brighton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 at Everton: 3-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Villarreal: 4-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at QPR: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 28 at Tokyo Verdy: 4-2, W (Friendly)
- July 24 at Kashima Antlers: 5-1 W, (Friendly)
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D
- Aug. 3 at Liverpool: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- July 27 at Arsenal: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Brighton and Hove Albion odds and Manchester United odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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