- Brighton is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Brighton earned all three points in three of the last four against United.
- I predict Brighton will do no worse than a draw on Saturday.
Fresh off a dominant road win at Everton, Brighton welcome Manchester United to the South Coast on Saturday.
In their debut match under manager Fabian Huerzler, the Seagulls earned a 3-0 road win as favorites.
Manchester United also started strong. A late Joshua Zirkzee tally vs. Fulham gave the Red Devils a 1-0 home win.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Brighton vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League
- Brighton Moneyline: +145
- Manchester United Moneyline: +160
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-200), No (+140)
Brighton vs. Manchester United Prediction: Game Spread
My prediction for Saturday’s fixture is Brighton Draw, No Bet (-120).
The Seagulls, who have historically dominated Manchester United, match a historically profitable system.
Home favorites with a win percentage north of 50% that lost the last head-to-head meeting by two or more goals are 47-25 SU since 2012.
Within that 72-game sample, those home favorites have dropped all three points only 11 times.
It gets better for Brighton.
Shrink that 72-game sample down to 18 teams that won their last game by two or more goals, and bettors will find the home teams are 13-5 SU with zero outright defeats.
Plus, Brighton bossed United in the last meeting. Despite losing 2-0, they won the expected goals battle 1.9 to 1.3.
Plus, United created 72% of their xG tally AFTER Rasmus Hojlund entered the game. Hojlund won’t play on Saturday, which will severely hamper United’s attack.
That also wasn’t a one-off performance from the Seagulls.
In their last four meetings against United, Brighton are 3-0-1 (W-D-L) and possess a +0.39 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Add in only five teams posted a worse road xGDiff per 90 last year than United, and I’ll take Brighton to do no worse than a draw.
Brighton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 17 at Everton: 3-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Villarreal: 4-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at QPR: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 28 at Tokyo Verdy: 4-2, W (Friendly)
- July 24 at Kashima Antlers: 5-1 W, (Friendly)
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 16 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D
- Aug. 3 at Liverpool: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- July 27 at Arsenal: 1-1, D (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Brighton and Hove Albion odds and Manchester United odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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