- Brighton is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
- Wolves have lost 10 of their last 11 league matches.
- My Brighton vs. Wolves prediction is for Brighton to earn all three points.
Brighton will go for a third straight league win on Saturday as they welcome Wolves to the Amex Stadium.
The Seagulls captured a 1-0 league win as road underdogs in Newcastle last week. That gave Fabian Huerzler’s side a second straight outright win as dogs.
Wolves, meanwhile, lost their fifth straight league match on Matchday 8. Credit Gary O’Neil’s side for an inspiring performance against Manchester City, who needed a late goal to win.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs. Wolves prediction.
Premier League Odds: Brighton vs. Wolves
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | +0.5 (+130) | 2.5 (-185) | +425 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | -0.5 (-190) | 2.5 (+130) | -175 |
| Draw | +320 |
Premier League Betting: Brighton vs. Wolves Prediction
In spite of Wolves’ strong performance vs. Man City, my Brighton vs. Wolves prediction is the Brighton Moneyline (-175).
Bettors have the benefit of having seen these teams in a prior meeting. Earlier this season, Brighton beat Wolves 3-2 at the Amex in a League Cup fixture.
The underlying metrics favored the hosts as well, with Brighton winning the match 2.2-1.8 on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Recently, Wolves have struggled away from home against sub-par sides.
Sample trips to Nottingham Forest and Brentford and bettors will find Wolves are 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -4.5 post-shot expected goal differential.
Brighton also have some positive regression coming based on their home performances.
The Seagulls own a +3 non-penalty goal differential through four league matches at home. However, it comes against a +5.4 non-penalty post-shot xGDiff, per fbref.com.
That makes this a good buy spot on Brighton, which matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2012, favorites in games 2-10 priced between -205 and -105 are 81-23 SU, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +4
- The opponent’s previous game margin fell between -4 and +0
- The opponent closed an underdog in their previous game
When those sides are priced between -205 and -145: 43-6 SU, including 19-3 when priced between -205 and -170.
For those reasons, I’ll back the Seagulls to earn all three points on Saturday.
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