Brighton vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds: Premier League Betting

Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 24, 2024, 2:24 PM
  • Brighton is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
  • Wolves have lost 10 of their last 11 league matches.
  • My Brighton vs. Wolves prediction is for Brighton to earn all three points.

Brighton will go for a third straight league win on Saturday as they welcome Wolves to the Amex Stadium.ย 

The Seagulls captured a 1-0 league win as road underdogs in Newcastle last week. That gave Fabian Huerzlerโ€™s side a second straight outright win as dogs.ย 

Wolves, meanwhile, lost their fifth straight league match on Matchday 8. Credit Gary Oโ€™Neilโ€™s side for an inspiring performance against Manchester City, who needed a late goal to win.ย 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs. Wolves prediction.ย 

Premier League Odds: Brighton vs. Wolves

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Wolves+0.5 (+130)2.5 (-185)+425
Brighton & Hove Albion-0.5 (-190)2.5 (+130)-175
Draw+320

Premier League Betting: Brighton vs. Wolves Prediction

In spite of Wolvesโ€™ strong performance vs. Man City, my Brighton vs. Wolves prediction is the Brighton Moneyline (-175).ย 

Bettors have the benefit of having seen these teams in a prior meeting. Earlier this season, Brighton beat Wolves 3-2 at the Amex in a League Cup fixture.ย 

The underlying metrics favored the hosts as well, with Brighton winning the match 2.2-1.8 on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.ย 

Recently, Wolves have struggled away from home against sub-par sides.ย 

Sample trips to Nottingham Forest and Brentford and bettors will find Wolves are 0-1-1 (W-D-L) with a -4.5 post-shot expected goal differential.ย 

Brighton also have some positive regression coming based on their home performances.ย 

The Seagulls own a +3 non-penalty goal differential through four league matches at home. However, it comes against a +5.4 non-penalty post-shot xGDiff, per fbref.com.ย 

That makes this a good buy spot on Brighton, which matches a historically profitable betting system.ย 

Since 2012, favorites in games 2-10 priced between -205 and -105 are 81-23 SU, assuming three factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +4
  • The opponentโ€™s previous game margin fell between -4 and +0
  • The opponent closed an underdog in their previous game

When those sides are priced between -205 and -145: 43-6 SU, including 19-3 when priced between -205 and -170.

For those reasons, Iโ€™ll back the Seagulls to earn all three points on Saturday.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.