- Crystal Palace is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Leicester City.
- In this series, home teams have earned points in seven consecutive meetings.
- I predict Crystal Palace will earn all three points against Leicester City.
Two teams near the bottom of the EPL table meet on Saturday at Selhurst Park: Crystal Palace and Leicester City.
Right before the international break, Palace captured a strong result. As road dogs to Chelsea, they held the Blues to a 1-1 draw.
As for Leicester, they fell for the second straight fixture in a 2-1 home loss to Aston Villa.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s game.
Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City Odds, Premier League
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: -160
- Leicester City Moneyline: +425
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-130), No (-110)
Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City Prediction: Moneyline
My prediction for this match is the Crystal Palace Moneyline (-160).
To drive the price down, I paired it with the Brighton Moneyline (-275) to get a price of +121. To get my Brighton analysis, head to my Brighton vs. Ipswich Town prediction.
In terms of Palace’s viability, history says to buy home favorites off a result as underdogs.
Such teams are 65.3% SU, assuming the game takes place in September-November or March-April and the previous head-to-head result fell between -1 and +5.
Even when those teams fall between -200 and +180 on the three-way moneyline, they’re 60.6% SU, including 46-14 between -200 and -110 since 2012.
Prospective bettors might argue Palace lost some momentum thanks to the international break. However, home favorites tend to perform quite well after an extended rest.
Since 2012, home favorites with 13-15 days between games priced between -200 and -110 are 71.4% SU, assuming their previous game margin fell between -1 and +2.
When those teams closed as an underdog in their previous game, they jump to 29-9 SU ( (76.3%) and have dropped all three points only three times in 38 matches.
One final system suggests a bet on Crystal Palace.
Favorites priced between -205 and -105 in games 2-10 are 78% SU, assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between +0 and +4
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between -4 and +0
- The opponent closed as an underdog in the previous game
When the favorite closed as a dog in their previous game, they’re 22-7 SU.
Palace posted a +2.2 xGDiff in the last meeting — against a better Leicester team — so I’ll back them to earn all three points at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 1 at Chelsea: 1-1, D
- Aug. 24 vs. West Ham United: 0-2, L
- Aug. 18 at Brentford: 1-2, L
- Aug. 11 vs. Nantes: 1-1, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. West Ham United: 3-1, W (Friendly)
Leicester City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
- Aug. 27 vs. Tranmere: 4-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Aug. 24 at Fulham: 1-2, L
- Aug. 19 vs. Tottenham: 1-1, D
- Aug. 10 at Lens: 0-3, L (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Crystal Palace odds and Leicester City odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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