- Tottenham is a -0.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
- Tottenham earned a 2-0 home win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Bettors should look to this prop market for Saturday’s fixture.
Ahead of Saturday’s London Derby at Craven Cottage, I’m here to offer a Tottenham vs. Fulham prediction.Â
Tottenham, who earned a 2-0 home win the previous fixture, are coming off a 4-0 road win at Aston Villa.Â
Meanwhile, Fulham lost 2-1 at the Wolves last weekend despite winning the expected goals battle at Molineux.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Fulham
- Tottenham Moneyline: +105
- Fulham Moneyline: +220
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Fulham
LEAN Tottenham First Half Over 0.5 (-145)
If you forced me to make a bet for this game, I’d back this market. That said, the current price is a little too high for comfort, given Tottenham are on the road.Â
That said, Tottenham’s offense has largely proved quite efficient early as a road favorite.
Sample seven Tottenham matches this season in which they closed a road favorite and bettors will find they’ve scored a first-half goal five times.Â
The underlying metrics back up those performances as Tottenham have created 8.43 post shot expected goals in those seven first halves and surpassed 0.5 psxG in all but one match.Â
Now they get a Fulham side that has struggled to defend early as a home underdog.Â
Manager Marco Silva’s side has closed a home dog five times this season and has conceded a first-half goal four times.Â
The lone success? At home to Manchester United, who sits 11th in post shot expected goals this season.Â
Tottenham, who posted a first-half tally off 0.71 post shot xG in the reverse fixture against Fulham, is fifth.Â
That means they’re much closer in quality to the likes of Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Brentford, all of which scored on Fulham in the first 45 minutes at Craven Cottage.Â
Fulham have also conceded a first-half goal in three of their last five games as underdogs, so I expect Spurs’ attack could have success early.Â
Back the visitors if this price reaches -135 or better.Â
Tottenham FormÂ
March 10 at Aston Villa: 4-0, W
March 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 3-1, W
Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W
Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D
Fulham Form
March 9 at Wolves: 1-2, L
March 2 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W
Feb. 24 at Manchester United: 2-1, W
Feb. 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Bournemouth: 3-1, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Arsenal | Everton | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Emirates Stadium |
Man City | West Ham United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Etihad Stadium |
Brentford | Newcastle United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | GTech Community Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Amex Stadium |
Burnley | Nottingham Forest | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Turf Moor |
Chelsea | Bournemouth | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Stamford Bridge |
Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Selhurst Park |
Liverpool | Wolves | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Anfield |
Luton Town | Fulham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Kenilworth Road |
Sheffield United | Tottenham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Bramall Lane |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential | Notes |
Manchester City | 27-7-3 | 88 | 60 | --- |
Arsenal FC | 27-5-5 | 86 | 61 | --- |
Liverpool FC | 23-10-4 | 79 | 43 | --- |
Aston Villa FC | 20-8-9 | 68 | 20 | --- |
Tottenham Hotspur | 19-6-12 | 63 | 10 | --- |
Chelsea FC | 17-9-11 | 60 | 13 | --- |
Newcastle United | 17-6-14 | 57 | 21 | --- |
Manchester United | 17-6-14 | 57 | -3 | --- |
West Ham United | 14-10-13 | 52 | -12 | --- |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-12-12 | 48 | -4 | --- |
Bournemouth | 13-9-15 | 48 | -12 | --- |
Crystal Palace | 12-10-15 | 46 | -6 | --- |
Wolves | 13-7-17 | 46 | -13 | --- |
Fulham FC | 12-8-17 | 44 | -8 | --- |
Everton | 13-9-15 | 40 | -10 | 8 Point Deduction |
Brentford | 10-9-18 | 39 | -7 | --- |
Nottingham Forest | 8-9-20 | 29 | -19 | 4 Point Deduction |
Luton Town | 6-8-23 | 26 | -31 | --- |
Burnley FC | 5-9-23 | 24 | -36 | --- |
Sheffield United | 3-7-27 | 16 | -66 | --- |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 22-14-1 | .608 | 10-7-1 | .583 | 12-7 | .632 |
Aston Villa | 19-17-1 | .527 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-10-1 | .417 |
Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | .541 | 9-8-2 | .526 | 10-8 | .556 |
Brentford | 14-21-2 | .405 | 6-11-1 | .361 | 8-10-1 | .447 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 15-20-2 | .432 | 8-9-1 | .472 | 7-11-1 | .395 |
Burnley | 18-19 | .486 | 5-13 | .278 | 13-6 | .684 |
Chelsea | 19-18 | .514 | 10-8 | .556 | 9-10 | .474 |
Crystal Palace | 20-17 | .541 | 9-9 | .500 | 11-8 | .579 |
Everton | 17-20 | .459 | 10-9 | .526 | 7-11 | .389 |
Fulham | 18-18-1 | .500 | 10-8-1 | .553 | 8-10 | .444 |
Liverpool | 18-19 | .486 | 10-8 | .556 | 8-11 | .421 |
Luton Town | 22-14-1 | .608 | 13-5 | .722 | 9-9-1 | .500 |
Manchester City | 19-18 | .514 | 8-10 | .444 | 11-8 | .579 |
Manchester United | 17-20 | .459 | 9-10 | .474 | 8-10 | .444 |
Newcastle United | 18-19 | .486 | 12-7 | .632 | 6-12 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 15-20-2 | .432 | 5-13-1 | .289 | 10-7-1 | .583 |
Sheffield United | 19-18 | .514 | 9-9 | .500 | 10-9 | .526 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
West Ham United | 19-18 | .514 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-11 | .389 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
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