Liverpool vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Brighton's Pascal Gross celebrates at full time as his team win 2-0 in the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Ajax at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023.
(Frank Augstein/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 28, 2024, 5:10 PM
  • Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • Brighton is unbeaten in their last four head-to-head meetings against Liverpool.
  • Has the market overreacted to Brighton’s recent form?

Before Sunday’s Premier League kickoff from Anfield, I’m here to offer a Liverpool vs. Brighton prediction and best bet. 

When these sides last played prior to the international break, both earned positive outcomes. 

Liverpool drew at home against Manchester City, while Brighton picked up a win over Nottingham Forest. 

Earlier this season, the Seagulls picked up a 2-2 home draw against Liverpool, the fourth consecutive meeting in which they’ve earned a result. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Brighton

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -250
  • Brighton Moneyline: +575
  • Draw Moneyline: +450
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-115/-120)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Brighton

LEAN Brighton & Hove Albion Spread (+1.5, -130) – Wait for Lineups

Staring me in the face is the fact Brighton lost their last league game 3-0 against a team worse than Liverpool. 

But what’s encouraging about this Brighton team is that they’re (traditionally) a very good underdog. 

Since the 2021-22 season, manager Roberto De Zerbi’s side is 18-11 ATS as underdogs of +0.5 or higher, including 4-3 at +1.5 or higher. 

Plus, although Brighton lost 2-0 at Arsenal this season, they stayed competitive against Manchester City. They lost 2-1, but Brighton finished even on expected goals against City. 

Brighton also matches a historically profitable system. Essentially, rarely do road underdogs get blown out away from home after earning a result. 

Since the 2020-21 season, road dogs sitting between +650 and +1400 on the consensus three-way moneyline that drew or won the previous game are 66% ATS. 

For context, teams that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 50.3% ATS over that same span, while teams that lost by two or more goals are 48.5% ATS. 

Liverpool also could have some significant injuries to manage for Sunday’s fixture. 

Both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson appear unlikely to play, while attackers Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez are questionable. 

If all four are unavailable, I like Brighton to keep this match close against a team they beat 2.32 to 1.56 on non-penalty expected goals earlier this season, per fotmob.com. 

If lineups come out and the latter two players are starting, I would need -110 or better on Brighton +1.5 to get involved. 

Liverpool Form 

March 17 at Manchester United: 4-3, L (AET, FA Cup)

March 14 vs. Sparta Prague: 6-1, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D

March 7 at Sparta Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)

March 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W

Brighton Form

March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W 

March 7 at Roma: 0-4, L (Europa League)

March 2 at Fulham: 0-3, L

Feb. 28 at Wolves: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.