Liverpool vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Brighton's Pascal Gross celebrates at full time as his team win 2-0 in the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Ajax at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023.
(Frank Augstein/AP Photo)
  • Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • Brighton is unbeaten in their last four head-to-head meetings against Liverpool.
  • Has the market overreacted to Brightonโ€™s recent form?

Before Sundayโ€™s Premier League kickoff from Anfield, Iโ€™m here to offer a Liverpool vs. Brighton prediction and best bet.ย 

When these sides last played prior to the international break, both earned positive outcomes.ย 

Liverpool drew at home against Manchester City, while Brighton picked up a win over Nottingham Forest.ย 

Earlier this season, the Seagulls picked up a 2-2 home draw against Liverpool, the fourth consecutive meeting in which theyโ€™ve earned a result.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sundayโ€™s match.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Brighton

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -250
  • Brighton Moneyline: +575
  • Draw Moneyline: +450
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-115/-120)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Brighton

LEAN Brighton & Hove Albion Spread (+1.5, -130) – Wait for Lineups

Staring me in the face is the fact Brighton lost their last league game 3-0 against a team worse than Liverpool.ย 

But whatโ€™s encouraging about this Brighton team is that theyโ€™re (traditionally) a very good underdog.ย 

Since the 2021-22 season, manager Roberto De Zerbiโ€™s side is 18-11 ATS as underdogs of +0.5 or higher, including 4-3 at +1.5 or higher.ย 

Plus, although Brighton lost 2-0 at Arsenal this season, they stayed competitive against Manchester City. They lost 2-1, but Brighton finished even on expected goals against City.ย 

Brighton also matches a historically profitable system. Essentially, rarely do road underdogs get blown out away from home after earning a result.ย 

Since the 2020-21 season, road dogs sitting between +650 and +1400 on the consensus three-way moneyline that drew or won the previous game are 66% ATS.ย 

For context, teams that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 50.3% ATS over that same span, while teams that lost by two or more goals are 48.5% ATS.ย 

Liverpool also could have some significant injuries to manage for Sundayโ€™s fixture.ย 

Both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson appear unlikely to play, while attackers Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez are questionable.ย 

If all four are unavailable, I like Brighton to keep this match close against a team they beat 2.32 to 1.56 on non-penalty expected goals earlier this season, per fotmob.com.ย 

If lineups come out and the latter two players are starting, I would need -110 or better on Brighton +1.5 to get involved.ย 

Liverpool Formย 

March 17 at Manchester United: 4-3, L (AET, FA Cup)

March 14 vs. Sparta Prague: 6-1, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D

March 7 at Sparta Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)

March 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W

Brighton Form

March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-0, Wย 

March 7 at Roma: 0-4, L (Europa League)

March 2 at Fulham: 0-3, L

Feb. 28 at Wolves: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.

If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

jamie-foxx-latest-promo-9-24
About the Author

BetMGM

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.