- Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Brighton is unbeaten in their last four head-to-head meetings against Liverpool.
- Has the market overreacted to Brighton’s recent form?
Before Sunday’s Premier League kickoff from Anfield, I’m here to offer a Liverpool vs. Brighton prediction and best bet.
When these sides last played prior to the international break, both earned positive outcomes.
Liverpool drew at home against Manchester City, while Brighton picked up a win over Nottingham Forest.
Earlier this season, the Seagulls picked up a 2-2 home draw against Liverpool, the fourth consecutive meeting in which they’ve earned a result.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Brighton
- Liverpool Moneyline: -250
- Brighton Moneyline: +575
- Draw Moneyline: +450
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-115/-120)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Brighton
LEAN Brighton & Hove Albion Spread (+1.5, -130) – Wait for Lineups
Staring me in the face is the fact Brighton lost their last league game 3-0 against a team worse than Liverpool.
But what’s encouraging about this Brighton team is that they’re (traditionally) a very good underdog.
Since the 2021-22 season, manager Roberto De Zerbi’s side is 18-11 ATS as underdogs of +0.5 or higher, including 4-3 at +1.5 or higher.
Plus, although Brighton lost 2-0 at Arsenal this season, they stayed competitive against Manchester City. They lost 2-1, but Brighton finished even on expected goals against City.
Brighton also matches a historically profitable system. Essentially, rarely do road underdogs get blown out away from home after earning a result.
Since the 2020-21 season, road dogs sitting between +650 and +1400 on the consensus three-way moneyline that drew or won the previous game are 66% ATS.
For context, teams that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 50.3% ATS over that same span, while teams that lost by two or more goals are 48.5% ATS.
Liverpool also could have some significant injuries to manage for Sunday’s fixture.
Both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson appear unlikely to play, while attackers Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez are questionable.
If all four are unavailable, I like Brighton to keep this match close against a team they beat 2.32 to 1.56 on non-penalty expected goals earlier this season, per fotmob.com.
If lineups come out and the latter two players are starting, I would need -110 or better on Brighton +1.5 to get involved.
Liverpool Form
March 17 at Manchester United: 4-3, L (AET, FA Cup)
March 14 vs. Sparta Prague: 6-1, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D
March 7 at Sparta Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)
March 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W
Brighton Form
March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W
March 7 at Roma: 0-4, L (Europa League)
March 2 at Fulham: 0-3, L
Feb. 28 at Wolves: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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