Newcastle vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Newcastle's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Newcastle, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 28, 2024, 3:24 PM
  • Newcastle is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
  • West Ham have earned points in three of the last four against Newcastle.
  • Historically profitable systems say to take this side.

Saturday’s early Premier League kickoff features two sides vying for European finishes. 

Newcastle, who sit 10th in the table, are four points below West Ham for a Europa Conference league spot with a game in hand. 

As for West Ham, they’re attempting to hold the final European spot. However, they sit only three points behind Manchester United, who have played one fewer game. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle vs. West Ham

  • Newcastle Moneyline: -120
  • West Ham Moneyline: +275
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)

EPL Prediction – Newcastle vs. West Ham 

Newcastle United Moneyline (-120)

It makes me so uncomfortable that Newcastle may not have Kieran Trippier for this match, but West Ham are just so overrated. 

This season, the Hammers hold a -4 goal differential compared to a -10 expected goal differential and -8.2 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com. 

On Saturday, they get a Newcastle side with some key pieces missing. However, the Magpies hold one of the best homefield advantages. 

With their +0.95 expected goal differential per 90 minutes at home, Newcastle has the fourth-best home mark in the Premier League. 

They’re also 7-4 SU as a home favorite this season and 24-15 SU as a home favorite since 2021-22. 

Although they’ve failed to win three of their previous four as home favorites, a number of past systems say Newcastle win their second straight as home favorites on Saturday. 

Since 2019-20, home favorites between -105 and -200 off a loss are 81-44 SU, including 24-6-1 this season.

Since the beginning of last season, home favorites with a win percentage between 40% and 60% off a loss are 48-23 SU. 

Finally, home favorites are 55-30 SU given the following factors since 2012-13:

  • Closing moneyline between -140 and -110
  • Win percentage between 15% and 45%
  • Previous game the opponent was a favorite

Add in some key absences for West Ham – midfielder Edson Alvarez is suspended, winger Mohammed Kudus is doubtful – and I’ll back them to negatively regress on Saturday. 

Take the Magpies as long as they’re -135 or better at St. James’ Park. 

Newcastle Form 

March 16 at Manchester City: 0-2, L (FA Cup)

March 11 at Chelsea: 2-3, L 

March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W

Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Newcastle win on PK’s)

Feb. 24 at Arsenal: 1-4, L

West Ham Form

March 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Freiburg: 5-0, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D

March 7 at Freiburg: 0-1, L

March 2 at Everton: 3-1, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Luton TownBrentfordApr. 2010:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedBurnleyApr. 2010:00 AMBramall Lane
WolvesArsenalApr. 202:30 PMMolineux Stadium
EvertonNottingham ForestApr. 218:30 AMGoodison Park
Aston VillaBournemouthApr. 2110:00 AMVilla Park
Crystal PalaceWest Ham UnitedApr. 2110:00 AMSelhurst Park
FulhamLiverpoolApr. 2111:30 AMCraven Cottage

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.

If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.