Liverpool vs. Wolves Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Liverpool's Ryan Gravenberch, front, celebrates with Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Liverpool at Craven Cottage stadium in London, Sunday, April 21, 2024.
(AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 17, 2024, 11:12 AM
  • Liverpool is a -2.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
  • Liverpool won 3-1 in the reverse fixture has won three of the last four vs. Wolves.
  • The case for a strong showing from the Wolves offense.

For Jurgen Klopp’s final home match as Liverpool manager, the Reds will host Wolves on Championship Sunday. 

Save for it being Klopp’s final home match, the fixture carries little meaning for Liverpool. They can’t win the title and have already locked up a Champions League spot next season. 

Wolves have little to play for as well. Manager Gary O’Neil’s side is safe from relegation despite losing four of their last five matches. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Odds – Liverpool vs. Wolves

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -600
  • Wolves Moneyline: +1300
  • Draw Moneyline: +725
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-165/+120)

Premier League Prediction – Liverpool vs. Wolves

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

Wolves are finally getting healthy and, barring O’Neil rotating the squad at Anfield, I can see them scoring. 

The key to this handicap is whether both Matheus Cunha and Hee-Chan Hwang start for the visitors. When they’re both starting, Wolves have a great record at finding the net. 

The duo have both appeared in O’Neil’s Starting XI 20 times this season. They’ve scored at least one goal in 19 of those 20 matches, including six straight. 

Interestingly, the lone failure came on the road at West Ham, a side with one of the worst defenses in the Premier League. 

However, this is a Wolves team that went to Manchester City on Matchday 36 and managed a tally, albeit off 0.3 expected goals. 

Wolves could also return talisman Pedro Neto to the Starting XI on Sunday. In 18 Neto starts, Wolves scored at least once 14 times. 

The four times they failed to score, at least one of Hwang or Cunha wasn’t available. 

All of that said, Wolves are unlikely to contain this Liverpool attack. 

Klopp’s men generated 2.5 expected goals in the reverse fixture at Molineux, and Wolves have struggled on the road against good attacks. 

In five trips to sides creating north of 1.7 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes — Liverpool have created 2.05 — Wolves have allowed two goals or more four times. 

The underlying metrics back up those performances as Wolves have conceded 2.12 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Plus, there’s a system suggesting Liverpool are likely to win this match outright.

Since 2012-13, fading underdogs that have allowed at least three goals in two straight games sees bettors go 103-68, assuming the dog closed a dog in their previous game. 

Assuming Wolves score, that would mean Liverpool get two or more in this match. 

Add in only one opponent has deservedly held Liverpool under one expected goal at Anfield this season and I’ll back the match to clear 2.5 goals. 

Liverpool Form 

May 13 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D

May 5 vs. Tottenham: 4-2, W

April 27 at West Ham: 2-2, D

April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W

Wolves Form

May 11 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-3, L

May 4 at Man City: 1-5, L

April 27 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W

April 24 vs. Bournemouth: 0-1, L

April 20 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.