- Liverpool is a -2.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Liverpool won 3-1 in the reverse fixture has won three of the last four vs. Wolves.
- The case for a strong showing from the Wolves offense.
For Jurgen Klopp’s final home match as Liverpool manager, the Reds will host Wolves on Championship Sunday.
Save for it being Klopp’s final home match, the fixture carries little meaning for Liverpool. They can’t win the title and have already locked up a Champions League spot next season.
Wolves have little to play for as well. Manager Gary O’Neil’s side is safe from relegation despite losing four of their last five matches.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Odds – Liverpool vs. Wolves
- Liverpool Moneyline: -600
- Wolves Moneyline: +1300
- Draw Moneyline: +725
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-165/+120)
Premier League Prediction – Liverpool vs. Wolves
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
Wolves are finally getting healthy and, barring O’Neil rotating the squad at Anfield, I can see them scoring.
The key to this handicap is whether both Matheus Cunha and Hee-Chan Hwang start for the visitors. When they’re both starting, Wolves have a great record at finding the net.
The duo have both appeared in O’Neil’s Starting XI 20 times this season. They’ve scored at least one goal in 19 of those 20 matches, including six straight.
Interestingly, the lone failure came on the road at West Ham, a side with one of the worst defenses in the Premier League.
However, this is a Wolves team that went to Manchester City on Matchday 36 and managed a tally, albeit off 0.3 expected goals.
Wolves could also return talisman Pedro Neto to the Starting XI on Sunday. In 18 Neto starts, Wolves scored at least once 14 times.
The four times they failed to score, at least one of Hwang or Cunha wasn’t available.
All of that said, Wolves are unlikely to contain this Liverpool attack.
Klopp’s men generated 2.5 expected goals in the reverse fixture at Molineux, and Wolves have struggled on the road against good attacks.
In five trips to sides creating north of 1.7 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes — Liverpool have created 2.05 — Wolves have allowed two goals or more four times.
The underlying metrics back up those performances as Wolves have conceded 2.12 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
Plus, there’s a system suggesting Liverpool are likely to win this match outright.
Since 2012-13, fading underdogs that have allowed at least three goals in two straight games sees bettors go 103-68, assuming the dog closed a dog in their previous game.
Assuming Wolves score, that would mean Liverpool get two or more in this match.
Add in only one opponent has deservedly held Liverpool under one expected goal at Anfield this season and I’ll back the match to clear 2.5 goals.
Liverpool Form
May 13 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D
May 5 vs. Tottenham: 4-2, W
April 27 at West Ham: 2-2, D
April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L
April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W
Wolves Form
May 11 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-3, L
May 4 at Man City: 1-5, L
April 27 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W
April 24 vs. Bournemouth: 0-1, L
April 20 vs. Arsenal: 0-2, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-4 | 57.6% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 11-22-0 | 33.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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