Manchester United vs. Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Best Bet Today – EPL, Oct. 29

min read
Manchester City's Erling Haaland celebrates towards fans after the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Brighton & Hove Albion at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 25, 2023, 2:50 PM
  • Manchester City is a -0.5 goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Cityโ€™s defense enters Sundayโ€™s match a positive regression candidate.
  • Manchester United escaped with a 1-0 win in midweek.

Itโ€™s the marquee match of this Premier League weekend as Iโ€™m set to provide a Manchester United vs. Manchester City prediction.ย ย 

In their last Premier League outing, City captured a 2-1 home win against Brighton. They currently sit second in the table, two points shy of Tottenham.ย 

As for United, theyโ€™ve won three games on the trot, including two in the Premier League.ย 

Hereโ€™s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sundayโ€™s encounter at Old Trafford.ย 

Manchester United vs. Manchester City Odds

  • Manchester United to Win: +350
  • Manchester City to Win: -140
  • Manchester United vs. Manchester City Draw: +290
  • The Manchester United vs. Manchester City Over/Under is 2.5 Goals

Manchester United vs. Manchester City Prediction

Based on recent trends, the prediction for Manchester United vs. Manchester City is Manchester United Team Total Under 0.5 Goal (+160).ย 

My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.


This is strictly a lean for me, as I was hoping to get a better price to fade Unitedโ€™s offense. At +175 or better, Iโ€™m invested for a half unit.ย 

That said, this play is largely derived from Cityโ€™s defensive record and Unitedโ€™s poor underlying metrics.ย 

Although City has conceded in three straight Premier League matches, theyโ€™ve proved slightly unlucky.ย 

Across those three games, manager Pep Guardiolaโ€™s side has surrendered only 1.6 TOTAL expected goals, per fbref.com.ย 

For the season, City has conceded seven goals on 6.3 expected and 5.8 post-shot expected goals.ย 

City also ranks first in opponent shots on target per 90 minutes (2.11), and penalty area touches allowed.ย 

Conversely, Unitedโ€™s attack โ€“ despite rating out a positive regression candidate โ€“ has recorded disappointing progression numbers.ย 

Manager Erik ten Hagโ€™s side is 10th in non-penalty expected goals, eighth in shots on target per 90 minutes and 11th in goal-creating actions.ย 

In their trip to Arsenal โ€“ the closest comparison to City โ€“ United managed only two shots on target and 0.55 post-shot expected goals.ย 

For those reasons, expect a weak performance from the Red Devils offense on Sunday.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.