- Manchester City is a -0.5 goal favorite against Manchester United.
- City’s defense enters Sunday’s match a positive regression candidate.
- Manchester United escaped with a 1-0 win in midweek.
It’s the marquee match of this Premier League weekend as I’m set to provide a Manchester United vs. Manchester City prediction.
In their last Premier League outing, City captured a 2-1 home win against Brighton. They currently sit second in the table, two points shy of Tottenham.
As for United, they’ve won three games on the trot, including two in the Premier League.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at Old Trafford.
Manchester United vs. Manchester City Odds
- Manchester United to Win: +350
- Manchester City to Win: -140
- Manchester United vs. Manchester City Draw: +290
- The Manchester United vs. Manchester City Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Manchester United vs. Manchester City Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Manchester United vs. Manchester City is Manchester United Team Total Under 0.5 Goal (+160).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
This is strictly a lean for me, as I was hoping to get a better price to fade United’s offense. At +175 or better, I’m invested for a half unit.
That said, this play is largely derived from City’s defensive record and United’s poor underlying metrics.
Although City has conceded in three straight Premier League matches, they’ve proved slightly unlucky.
Across those three games, manager Pep Guardiola’s side has surrendered only 1.6 TOTAL expected goals, per fbref.com.
For the season, City has conceded seven goals on 6.3 expected and 5.8 post-shot expected goals.
City also ranks first in opponent shots on target per 90 minutes (2.11), and penalty area touches allowed.
Conversely, United’s attack – despite rating out a positive regression candidate – has recorded disappointing progression numbers.
Manager Erik ten Hag’s side is 10th in non-penalty expected goals, eighth in shots on target per 90 minutes and 11th in goal-creating actions.
In their trip to Arsenal – the closest comparison to City – United managed only two shots on target and 0.55 post-shot expected goals.
For those reasons, expect a weak performance from the Red Devils offense on Sunday.
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