Newcastle vs. Sheffield United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Newcastle's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Newcastle, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 25, 2024, 4:54 PM
  • Newcastle is a -1.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
  • Magpies lost 2-0 in midweek, but beat Sheffield 8-0 at Bramall Lane.
  • Play this Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s fixture at St. James’ Park.

In what could prove their relegation match, Sheffield United travel to face Newcastle United at St. James’ Park. 

Both teams enter this match in poor form. Newcastle traveled to Crystal Palace in the midweek and subsequently lost 2-0, while Sheffield blew a 2-1 lead at Manchester United in a 4-2 loss. 

When these sides met last, Newcastle United dominated the match. They won 8-0 at Bramall Lane while creating 6.8 post-shot expected goals on the road. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle vs. Sheffield United

  • Newcastle Moneyline: -450
  • Sheffield United Moneyline: +1000
  • Draw Moneyline: +575
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)

EPL Prediction – Newcastle vs. Sheffield United

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-115)

How this price isn’t -150 is a complete mystery to me. 

Newcastle United is a strong bet to score at least two goals in this match. They’ve scored in every home match this season and have bagged at least 1.5 xG in all but three matches. 

Across all fixtures at St. James’ Park, the Magpies have created 41.1 expected goals, the second-highest total in the league this season. 

Additionally, this is a Sheffield United defense ripe for the taking. 

In their last two matches – vs. Burnley and at Manchester United – they’ve allowed both teams to create at least three post-shot expected goals, per 

Given they allowed Newcastle to create 6.8 psxG at their home stadium, I expect Sheffield’s defense is in for a long afternoon. 

All that said, where’s the love for an improving Sheffield United attack? 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Blades have scored at least once in nine of 14 matches. 

Two failures came against sides sixth or better in npxGA per 90. This season, Newcastle rank 15th in that category, per 

Coinciding with that offensive trend for Sheffield is the arrival of Ben Brereton from Villarreal. Through 10 matches with their new striker, Sheffield has scored in eight.

Finally, there’s something odd going on with the correlative prices for this game. 

Both teams to score – “yes” is priced at -145. However, Sheffield is -165 to score. 

Although it’s not a huge gap, it feels as though those prices should be closer. 

Newcastle have allowed opponents to score in 11 of their last 14 league fixtures, so I’ll place some trust in the Sheffield attack with both teams playing on short rest.  

Newcastle Form 

April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L

April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W

April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W

April 2 vs. Everton: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. West Ham: 4-3, W

Sheffield United Form

April 24 at Manchester United: 2-4, L

April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L

April 13 at Brentford: 0-2, L

April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.