- Newcastle is a -1.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
- Magpies lost 2-0 in midweek, but beat Sheffield 8-0 at Bramall Lane.
- Play this Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s fixture at St. James’ Park.
In what could prove their relegation match, Sheffield United travel to face Newcastle United at St. James’ Park.
Both teams enter this match in poor form. Newcastle traveled to Crystal Palace in the midweek and subsequently lost 2-0, while Sheffield blew a 2-1 lead at Manchester United in a 4-2 loss.
When these sides met last, Newcastle United dominated the match. They won 8-0 at Bramall Lane while creating 6.8 post-shot expected goals on the road.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle vs. Sheffield United
- Newcastle Moneyline: -450
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +1000
- Draw Moneyline: +575
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)
EPL Prediction – Newcastle vs. Sheffield United
Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-115)
How this price isn’t -150 is a complete mystery to me.
Newcastle United is a strong bet to score at least two goals in this match. They’ve scored in every home match this season and have bagged at least 1.5 xG in all but three matches.
Across all fixtures at St. James’ Park, the Magpies have created 41.1 expected goals, the second-highest total in the league this season.
Additionally, this is a Sheffield United defense ripe for the taking.
In their last two matches – vs. Burnley and at Manchester United – they’ve allowed both teams to create at least three post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
Given they allowed Newcastle to create 6.8 psxG at their home stadium, I expect Sheffield’s defense is in for a long afternoon.
All that said, where’s the love for an improving Sheffield United attack?
Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Blades have scored at least once in nine of 14 matches.
Two failures came against sides sixth or better in npxGA per 90. This season, Newcastle rank 15th in that category, per fbref.com.
Coinciding with that offensive trend for Sheffield is the arrival of Ben Brereton from Villarreal. Through 10 matches with their new striker, Sheffield has scored in eight.
Finally, there’s something odd going on with the correlative prices for this game.
Both teams to score – “yes” is priced at -145. However, Sheffield is -165 to score.
Although it’s not a huge gap, it feels as though those prices should be closer.
Newcastle have allowed opponents to score in 11 of their last 14 league fixtures, so I’ll place some trust in the Sheffield attack with both teams playing on short rest.
Newcastle Form
April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L
April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W
April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W
April 2 vs. Everton: 1-1, D
March 30 vs. West Ham: 4-3, W
Sheffield United Form
April 24 at Manchester United: 2-4, L
April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L
April 13 at Brentford: 0-2, L
April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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