- Newcastle is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- West Ham have earned points in three of the last four against Newcastle.
- Historically profitable systems say to take this side.
Saturday’s early Premier League kickoff features two sides vying for European finishes.
Newcastle, who sit 10th in the table, are four points below West Ham for a Europa Conference league spot with a game in hand.
As for West Ham, they’re attempting to hold the final European spot. However, they sit only three points behind Manchester United, who have played one fewer game.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle vs. West Ham
- Newcastle Moneyline: -120
- West Ham Moneyline: +275
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
EPL Prediction – Newcastle vs. West Ham
Newcastle United Moneyline (-120)
It makes me so uncomfortable that Newcastle may not have Kieran Trippier for this match, but West Ham are just so overrated.
This season, the Hammers hold a -4 goal differential compared to a -10 expected goal differential and -8.2 post shot expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
On Saturday, they get a Newcastle side with some key pieces missing. However, the Magpies hold one of the best homefield advantages.
With their +0.95 expected goal differential per 90 minutes at home, Newcastle has the fourth-best home mark in the Premier League.
They’re also 7-4 SU as a home favorite this season and 24-15 SU as a home favorite since 2021-22.
Although they’ve failed to win three of their previous four as home favorites, a number of past systems say Newcastle win their second straight as home favorites on Saturday.
Since 2019-20, home favorites between -105 and -200 off a loss are 81-44 SU, including 24-6-1 this season.
Since the beginning of last season, home favorites with a win percentage between 40% and 60% off a loss are 48-23 SU.
Finally, home favorites are 55-30 SU given the following factors since 2012-13:
- Closing moneyline between -140 and -110
- Win percentage between 15% and 45%
- Previous game the opponent was a favorite
Add in some key absences for West Ham – midfielder Edson Alvarez is suspended, winger Mohammed Kudus is doubtful – and I’ll back them to negatively regress on Saturday.
Take the Magpies as long as they’re -135 or better at St. James’ Park.
Newcastle Form
March 16 at Manchester City: 0-2, L (FA Cup)
March 11 at Chelsea: 2-3, L
March 2 vs. Wolves: 3-0, W
Feb. 27 at Blackburn: 1-1, D (FA Cup, Newcastle win on PK’s)
Feb. 24 at Arsenal: 1-4, L
West Ham Form
March 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-1, D
March 14 vs. Freiburg: 5-0, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D
March 7 at Freiburg: 0-1, L
March 2 at Everton: 3-1, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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