- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Chelsea has won two straight games, but lost 1-0 to Forest in the reverse fixture.
- The case for a strong showing from the Forest attack.
For Saturday’s standalone Premier League fixture, Nottingham Forest welcomes Chelsea to the City Ground as they attempt to put a stranglehold on safety.
Both teams enter this penultimate fixture off strong results. Chelsea has earned two straight wins, including last weekend’s 5-0 win over West Ham, to give hope for a Europa League spot.
As for Forest, they ended a four-match winless run last weekend with a 3-1 win over Sheffield United to all but guarantee safety.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s clash.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest
- Chelsea Moneyline: +100
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +230
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
Premier League Prediction – Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest
LEAN Nottingham Forest Over 1.5 Goals (+120)
The price isn’t quite good enough for me to get involved, but this is what I would bet if you forced a play from me.
Slightly concerning is that Chelsea’s defense has looked much improved recently.
In their last three games — albeit with two at home — they’ve surrendered under one post-shot expected goal in all three.
Opponent shot quality is low, too. The 3.6 expected goals they’ve conceded over that run has come off 41 shots, or 0.09 xG/ shot.
For the entire season, Chelsea are sitting on 0.11 xGA per shot, so improvement has occurred recently.
The big worry? Chelsea’s defense has lacked similar prowess away from home compared to their efforts at Stamford Bridge.
At home, the Blues are conceding 1.26 expected goals per 90 minutes. On the road, the average balloons to 1.78 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Although they were unlucky to concede two goals to Aston Villa in their previous fixture, they’ve really struggled as a road favorite.
Both Sheffield United and Brentford cleared this number against the Blues while creating 3.2 expected goals and 3.6 post-shot expected goals combined.
When bettors last saw Nottingham Forest at home, they found ample room to operate against Manchester City’s defense.
They struggled to hit the target and challenge City’s keeper, but the fact they created 1.9 xG against the league’s second-best defense is a feat.
Before that match, Forest cleared this number against both Wolves and Fulham, sides that are closer to Chelsea’s defensive metrics for the season.
All told, the Tricky Trees have cleared this number in 10 of 18 home games with the Blues allowing their opponent to clear it in 12 of 17 road contests.
For those reasons, it would be the Forest team total or nothing. However, given Chelsea’s recent defensive improvements, it’s a pass right now.
Chelsea Form
May 5 vs. West Ham: 5-0, W
May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W
April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D
April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L
April 20 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
Nottingham Forest Form
May 4 at Sheffield United: 3-1, W
April 28 vs. Manchester City: 0-2, L
April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L
April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D
April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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