- Nottingham Forest is a -0.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
- Forest earned a 2-1 home win against Sheffield on Matchday 2.
- Why bettors should expect major positive regression for one side.
With manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s side attempting to stave off relegation, he’ll take Nottingham Forest to Sheffield United on Saturday.
Only one side – Forest – has motivation for this game. Sheffield United’s fate has already been decided as they’ll play next season in the English second tier.
Both teams struggled in their last league fixture. Forest lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City while Sheffield took a 1-0 lead at Newcastle, but ultimately lost 5-1.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: -155
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +375
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
EPL Prediction – Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United
Same Game Parlay: Nottingham Forest Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-120)
This is the ultimate buy-low spot on a Forest side that has run unlucky all season and finally finds itself in a get-right spot.
This season, the Tricky Trees have posted a -20 goal differential, the fourth-worst mark in the Premier League.
However, that comes against a -3 expected goal differential, the 12th-best mark in the Premier League and better than two top-half sides, per fbref.com.
Sample only their previous six matches and bettors will find they’ve recorded a -4 goal differential compared to a +3.6 expected goal differential.
At home to Manchester City, they lost the match 2-0 but won the expected goals battle 1.9 to 0.9.
Now they get a Sheffield side that they bossed in their previous meeting. Albeit at home, Forest won the xG battle 1.4 to 0.5 and the psxG battle 2.05 to 1.53, per fotmob.com.
With little motivation left for Sheffield United, bettors should expect a similar outcome.
Plus, Forest match two historically profitable betting systems with a third suggesting a fade of Sheffield United.
Since 2012-13, favorites in games 16-38 that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 87-55-13 SU, assuming both teams lost their previous game.
When they’re the road team, they cover at a 71.1% clip.
One more: since 2012-13, half-goal favorites in March-May that won the previous meeting and closed a dog in their previous game are 46-25 ATS, including 14-7 away from home.
Finally, fading underdogs that have allowed at least three goals in two straight games and closed a dog in their last game sees bettors go 101-68 SU since 2012-13.
As a result, back the visitors to earn all three points as they attempt to secure Premier League football next season.
Nottingham Forest Form
April 28 vs. Man City: 0-2, L
April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L
April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D
April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L
April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W
Sheffield United Form
April 27 at Newcastle United: 1-5, L
April 24 at Manchester United: 2-4, L
April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L
April 13 at Brentford: 0-2, L
April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 67 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 19-7-9 | 64 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-10 | 60 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 14-7-13 | 49 | 8 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-18 | 41 | -11 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 21-11-2 | 64.7% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 11-4-2 | 70.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-23-0 | 34.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-13-0 | 61.8% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-13-3 | 58.6% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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