- Tottenham is a -0.5 goal favorite against Chelsea.
- Monday’s hosts lead the league after a 10-match unbeaten start.
- Chelsea are a positive regression candidate based on underlying metrics.
Get my Tottenham vs. Chelsea prediction for Monday’s standalone English Premier League match.
Hosts Tottenham put their unbeaten run at stake against the Blues, who have staggered out to a 3-3-4 (W-D-L) start.
In their most recent fixtures, Tottenham captured a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace, while Chelsea dropped all three points at home to Brentford.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Monday’s encounter at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Tottenham vs. Chelsea Odds
- Tottenham to Win: +110
- Chelsea to Win: +220
- Tottenham vs. Chelsea Draw: +260
- The Tottenham vs. Chelsea Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Tottenham vs. Chelsea Prediction
Based on recent trends, the spread prediction for Tottenham vs. Chelsea is Chelsea (+0.5, -145).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Tottenham are unbeaten through 10 games, but it hasn’t all been deserved.
Manager Ange Postecoglou’s side owns a +13 goal differential compared to a +5.2 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Without adjusting for strength of schedule, that’s only the seventh-best expected goal differential in the Premier League.
On Monday, they get Chelsea, who have run very unlucky in their initial set of fixtures.
The Blues have a +2 goal differential in 10 matches compared to a +6.9 expected goal differential and +5.4 non-penalty expected goal differential.
In terms of their expected goal differential, Chelsea rank fifth in the English top flight.
What gives me confidence in Chelsea is their outstanding defense. Entering this fixture, manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side sits fourth in non-penalty expected goals.
That makes them only the second top-six non-penalty expected goal defense Tottenham will have faced to date.
As a result, Tottenham’s offensive overperformance – 22 goals off 17.6 expected – should see some regression Monday.
Without their normal offensive firepower, I question how the hosts create margin on Monday.
Back Pochettino’s squad in a revenge game so long as Chelsea remains available at -150 or better.
