- Wolves is a -0.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
- Fulham earned a 3-2 win in the last head-to-head meeting.
- Despite a poor road record, Fulham matches a historically profitable system.
Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League kickoff in the English midlands, I’m set to provide a Wolves vs. Fulham prediction.
Wolves struggled immensely in their last match, losing 3-0 at Newcastle United. As for Fulham, they earned a 3-0 home win against Brighton.
When these sides met last, Fulham captured a 3-2 home win. That marked the third straight head-to-head meeting in which Fulham earned at least a point.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s clash.
EPL Betting Odds – Wolves vs. Fulham
- Wolves Moneyline: +145
- Fulham Moneyline: +180
- Draw Moneyline: +240
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-120/-115)
EPL Prediction – Wolves vs. Fulham
Fulham Draw, No Bet (-105)
Fulham own the fourth-worst road expected goal differential of the season, but they’ve faced a brutal road schedule.
Only once this season have Fulham closed below +200 on the three-way moneyline on the road (a draw at Burnley).
Only twice this season have they closed below +250 on the three-way moneyline. In those two matches, they’re 1-1-0 (W-D-L).
Thus, their road expected goal differential likely has more to do with the level of opposition rather than Fulham’s actual competency.
What gives me faith in this Fulham side is that they match a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2017-18 season, road dogs off a multi-goal win that won the previous head-to-head are 26-11-2 ATS, assuming their opponent didn’t win the previous game.
Since the beginning of last season, those teams are 10-1 ATS.
Shrink the former sample down to games in which the opponent was a dog in the previous game and bettors will find the dog is 15-6-2 ATS, including 4-1 in the last five.
Wolves also won’t have both Hee-Chan Hwang and Matheus Cunha on Saturday. As it stands, those players lead Wolves in expected goals this season.
Add in Fulham talisman Joao Palhinha returns from a two-match ban, and I’ll back the visitors to do no worse than a draw.
Bet at -110 or better.
Wolves Form
March 2 at Newcastle United: 0-3, L
Feb. 28 vs. Brighton: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
Feb. 25 vs. Sheffield United: 1-0, W
Feb. 17 at Tottenham: 2-1, W
Feb. 10 vs. Brentford: 0-2, L
Fulham Form
March 2 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W
Feb. 24 at Manchester United: 2-1, W
Feb. 17 vs. Aston Villa: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Bournemouth: 3-1, W
Feb. 3 at Burnley: 2-2, D
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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