- Italy (+140) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
- Italy is unbeaten against Switzerland in their last three meetings.
- Why Switzerland’s defense is well equipped to disarm Italy.
To kick off the 2024 Euro knockout round, Italy and Switzerland will play for the second consecutive European championship.
Italy earned a knockout round spot after finishing second in Group B to Spain. As for the Swiss, they occupied the second spot of Group A behind host nation Germany.
Italy, who captured the continental crown in 2021, began that campaign by handing the Swiss a 3-0 beatdown at the Stadio Olimpico.
Here’s a look at the Euro 2024 odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Switzerland vs. Italy Odds
- Switzerland Moneyline: +225
- Italy Moneyline: +140
- Draw Moneyline: +195
- Total Goals: 1.5 (-200/+140)
Switzerland vs. Italy Prediction
Same Game Parlay: Total Under 2.5 Goals & Italy Under 1.5 Goals (-135)
This is not the same Swiss defense that surrendered three goals to Italy at the last European Championship.
Bettors caught a glimpse of how the Swiss defense will set up against Italy in their final group match against Germany.
Switzerland failed to control the possession and held only 34% of the ball. In good news, they only allowed 0.09 expected goals per shot, per fotmob.com.
They also did a good job limiting shots on target. All told, Germany managed only one post-shot expected goal, 0.87 of which came in stoppage time.
Switzerland held Italy under this number in each of their last two meetings, and I’m willing to sell an Italian offense that generated only 0.9 xG against Croatia.
At the same time, don’t expect the Switzerland attack to contribute much in this match either.
At first glance, Italy’s defensive metrics from the group stage look concerning.
However, they allowed only 0.7 non-penalty expected goals to Croatia, including 0.47 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com.
A 2.05 xGA/2.1 psxGA performance against Spain is slightly concerning, but that came with Italy holding a minority of the ball.
With Italy holding a majority of the ball against Switzerland, I’m more confident in their defensive ability.
As a result, trust the overwhelming odds on under 2.5 goals and take this game to prove a defensive one in nature.
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