Ball State vs Miami (OH) Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 22, 2022, 7:16 PM
  • Miami (OH) (5-6) are -2.5 point favorites vs Ball State (5-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN Networks

The Ball State Cardinals (5-6) visit Fred C. Yager Stadium to take on the Miami (OH) RedHawks (5-6) on Nov. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Oxford.

Miami (OH) are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-125).

The Ball State vs. Miami (OH) Over/Under is 43.5 total points.

Bet now on Miami (OH) vs Ball State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Ball State vs. Miami (OH) Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Ball State+2.5 -10543.5 -110+115
Miami (OH) -2.5 -12543.5 -120-150

Ball State vs Miami (OH) Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Miami (OH) will win this game with 50.5% confidence.

Ball State vs Miami (OH) Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Miami (OH) will cover the spread with 69.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Ball State and Miami (OH), plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Ball State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ball State players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • John Paddock has hit the Passing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ball State has hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Ball State has hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Ball State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Ball State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Miami (OH) has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Miami (OH) has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Miami (OH) has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+5.42 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Miami (OH) have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Miami (OH) has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 49% ROI)

Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ball State has gone 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.6 Units / -13.11% ROI).

  • Ball State is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 13.5% ROI
  • Ball State is 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
  • Ball State is 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI

Miami (OH) Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Miami (OH) has gone 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI).

  • Miami (OH) is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -19.05% ROI
  • Miami (OH) is 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
  • Miami (OH) is 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI

Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Miami (OH)

Ball State is winless (0-9) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .390

Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ball State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 33.0 receptions (132 Rec/4 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Ball State TEs have caught 12 touchdown passes — tied for most among FBS Teams

Ball State TEs have been targeted 20 times in the Red Zone — 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Ball State TEs have been targeted 26 times in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Ball State TEs have picked up first downs on 11 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Miami (OH) Offensive Stats & Trends

Miami (OH) RBs have averaged just 2.8 Yards per Carry (165 yards/58 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Miami (OH) WRs have averaged 19.6 yards per reception (1,943 yards/99 catches) on 1st down since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.7

Miami (OH) RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 107 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations since last season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 23.9

Miami (OH) Skill Players have caught 12 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Miami (OH) RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 42 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations this season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 23.5

Ball State Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends

Ball State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 45% (41 completions/92 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Ball State has allowed just 10.4 receiving yards per game (114/11) to RBs — 5th-best in FBS; Average: 25.9

Ball State has not recorded a sack (30 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 17.1

Ball State has allowed just 6.1 Yards per Attempt (561 yards/92 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 8.0

Ball State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 125 of 1,004 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since last season– 5th worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Miami (OH) RedHawks Defensive Stats & Trends

Miami (OH) has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 31 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 12%.

Miami (OH) has tackled opponents for a loss on 32 of 130 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Miami (OH) has tackled opponents for a loss on 32 of 130 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

Miami (OH) has allowed 18 rushing TDs on 130 carries (7.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.8

Miami (OH) has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 31 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 12%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.