College Football Futures Betting: 19 Of My Best Bets For 2024

The college football season has finally arrived, which means it’s last call for bettors to lock in their preseason futures positions.

BetMGM’s college football odds include futures market for college football win totals, College Football Playoff odds, and Heisman Trophy odds, among others. 

Here, after months of roster research and market analysis, I explain many of my favorite bets I’ve made this summer. 

Missouri Over 9.5 Wins (+145)

Let’s start in the SEC, where Missouri is fresh off a 10-win regular season and looking to build on its first great season in years. The Tigers lost some NFL talent from their defensive line but retained Brady Cook and nine total starters on offense.

Regression bettors are expecting Missouri to slide back toward the middle just a tad this year in a deep SEC that now also includes Texas and Oklahoma. But Eli Drinkwitz inherited a great 2024 schedule that dodges Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss – four of the expected top teams in the conference.

Missouri should be a significant favorite in nine games. To get over 9.5 wins, the Tigers will need to hold serve in those, then win just one of the following: at South Carolina, at Texas A&M, at Alabama. I think that’s pretty doable, and I love the +145 price that the market is providing. 

Missouri to Make the Playoff (+180)

I’m not sold that Missouri will have the best team in the SEC, but I am operating under the assumption that it’ll be a top team with a strong record against an easy schedule. 

Given the power we expect the SEC to wield in playoff discussions, a Missouri team with the clear potential for double-digit wins would be a good buy. 

Like the win total, this is a bet I like on the fundamentals but is affirmed by a strong +180 return, 

Texas Over 10 Wins (-115)

Texas enters its first year as an SEC program in a strong position. Steve Sarkisian has the program at its highest ebb in nearly 20 years. 

About 15 starters return in 2024, including quarterback Quinn Ewers. The portal brought in some nice players, including wide receiver Isaiah Bond and safety Andrew Mukuba. 

Texas will field one of the most talented rosters in college football in 2024, which will make the Longhorns a clear favorite in a majority of their games. 

When this number opened at 10.5, I wasn’t interested. With the market dropping to 10, though, I’m now very interested in getting involved. 

Nine wins feels like the floor for this Texas team, with the most likely potential losses coming against rival Oklahoma (neutral), rival Texas A&M (road), and conference favorite Georgia (home). One win from this set earns a push, while two earns a win. 

Three probably earns a top seed in the playoff, so bullish Texas bettors may want to add to their position in the national championship market. 

Georgia Under 10.5 Wins (+115)

I’m pretty high on Georgia in 2024 as one of the only teams I think are a true national championship contender. That said, I’m also ready to challenge some of the common assumptions about Georgia. 

After back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022, the general belief among college football fans and analysts seems to be that Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs are the top program in a post-Saban, post-Harbaugh world. 

That’s a fair assumption to make. As far as win totals go, though, the Bulldogs still have a pretty challenging schedule. They open against Clemson on Aug. 31 and play an SEC road game (at Kentucky) before their Week 4 bye. They have back-to-back games against Alabama and Auburn and must travel to Texas in October. 

A November game against Tennessee is also on the calendar, meaning Georgia is scheduled to play most of the projected top third of the SEC. 

I think it’s possible that Georgia drops two games in the regular season before potentially rolling through the CFP as an at-large team. The pressure to remain undefeated at all costs should abate this season, and some coaches may take a longer view in their approach to personnel, injury management, and other factors. 

At +115, I’m willing to take a chance that Georgia’s regular-season record doesn’t quite match their talent and ambition.

Carson Beck to Win the Heisman Trophy (+750)

I wasn’t kidding when I said I was high on Georgia despite the under 10.5 bet. Beck quietly amassed one of the top statistical profiles among 2023 college football quarterbacks and, as a result, opened the 2024 Heisman Trophy odds market as the favorite.

Beck has since been nudged into the No. 2 position in the table by Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Given how former Ducks quarterback Bo Nix performed in Eugene last year, Gabriel seems like a wise target for bettors. 

Still, I remain bullish on Beck. I’m expecting a huge season from him that shifts the perception of Georgia as a program dominated exclusively by defensive talent, akin to how Saban and Alabama underwent a real makeover in the public consciousness during his last five or six years in Tuscaloosa. Alabama went from a foundational defensive program to a consistent producer of Heisman Trophy winners. I think Beck could start a similar change in Athens. 

Virginia Tech Over 8.5 Wins (+100)

I don’t play a lot of trendy win totals, but I do like this one. 

Virginia Tech is getting some love this offseason as a dark horse ACC contender, and while I’m not quite ready to say that, I do think the Hokies are talented enough to win nine games against even odds.

Tech brings back essentially its entire team from 2023, including a serviceable quarterback in Kyron Drones. The nonconference slate includes games against Vanderbilt, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Rutgers. 

The ACC schedule includes Miami and Clemson, but also Stanford, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Duke, and rival Virginia – a whole lot of beatable blah. 

Virginia Tech could easily be a 10-win team and still not even necessarily be that good. At 8.5, I think this is far from priced out. 

Colorado Under 5.5 Wins (+110)

Deion Sanders and Colorado football is its own mega-topic with dozens of dimensions. I was not super high on the Buffs last year, and they ended the season by losing eight of their last nine games. 

I’m similarly low on Colorado this year. There are aspects of Colorado that I like, so I don’t think I’m a full hater, but I’m definitely skeptical of their fortunes in the win total market.

Let’s start here: The schedule is harder this year, but the win total went up. 

Last year, Colorado jumped out to its noisy, nuclear 3-0 start after wins over TCU, Nebraska, and Colorado State. The latter two games were at home, and the road win at TCU was a last-team-to-have-the-ball kind of affair. Colorado won 45-42. TCU finished with a 5-7 record, winning only two games after the month of September.

This year, Colorado plays a tougher nonconference schedule. It will play the return games against both Nebraska and Colorado State, with Nebraska in particular expected to have made big strides in Year 2 under Matt Rhule. Colorado State will be looking forward to its game against Deion as its Super Bowl.

In Week 1, it’s Colorado vs. North Dakota State, which I’ve already written about here on the blog as one of the biggest college football games of Week 1. The short version: This isn’t the dynastic NDSU of the 2010s, but that might not matter. Colorado has elite athletes that the Bison won’t be able to check, but NDSU will run power at Colorado’s weak defensive front. An 0-3 start isn’t likely, but it’s definitely possible. 

When Colorado reaches Big 12 play, the obvious wins are few and far between. I like Colorado to beat Baylor at home on Sept. 21 and Cincinnati on Oct. 26. The road game at Texas Tech should be in play on Nov. 9 with Sander & Co. coming out of the bye.

Colorado is a likely dog in every other game, and Shedeur Sanders will need some real heroics to grab more than one upset. 

If this was last year, where Colorado was floating in the 3.5 range, this would be an easy over. But with the market now expecting bowl eligibility, I have a hard time expecting the Buffs to produce those kinds of results against this kind of schedule with their current roster.

This is an under for me, and that’s before you even consider guys like Shedeur or Travis Hunter missing time because of their high usage and hit rate. 

Memphis to Make the Playoff (+600)

Look, we know someone from the G5 is getting into the CFP this year. I like Memphis not because it’s the clear best team, but because it has the most likely CFP-bound schedule.

We know the highest-ranked G5 champion is guaranteed playoff access. Liberty and Boise State have the shortest odds right now, but I’m skeptical of both teams for different reasons. 

Boise State should field a great defense, but it has way too many potential potholes in the schedule with games at Georgia Southern, at Oregon, vs. Washington State, and vs. Oregon State, not to mention its traditional Mountain West schedule. The Broncos may ultimately be the best G5 team, but it seems unlikely they’ll be the highest ranked.

Liberty is almost the polar opposite of Boise State – a total paper tiger with a Charmin-soft Conference USA schedule. Last year, Liberty romped to a 13-0 record and earned a Fiesta Bowl berth, where the Flames were promptly curb stomped by Oregon. While seasons should present independent datasets, I do think human nature could come into play here. If Liberty rolls to another 12-1/13-0 record, will the polls be quick to reinsert them right back into the top 20?

Compared to Boise and Liberty, I like the blend of realism and return I get with Memphis at +600. The Tigers play a very manageable AAC schedule where every team is beatable, but the PR hit won’t be quite as tough as Conference USA. They jump down to Tallahassee in Week 3 for a major game against Florida State – a high-profile but vulnerable P4 team that has questions at quarterback with DJ Uiagalelei and isn’t quite what it was last year.

If Memphis pulls off the upset at FSU, it will be in the driver’s seat for the CFP. But even if it fails in a competitive loss, Memphis will have more than two full months to stack up wins and creep back into the polls. After all, the game here with the G5 playoff berth is poll forecasting, and Memphis has a great schedule to win the poll games. 

Texas State Under 8.5 Wins (-110)

Texas State is a trendy team to go over its win total and win the Sun Belt in 2024. A lot of that hype comes from the transfer portal, where offense-minded G.J. Kinne snagged Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Jordan McCloud from James Madison. As a result, bettors are expecting big things.

I’m not so sure they should. Texas State plays a feast-or-famine defense, generating a ton of tackles for loss, but also allowing nearly 35 points per game in a Sun Belt West that isn’t exactly known for excellent offense.

McCloud is a great add on paper, but I have concerns that his success was a function of JMU’s overall talent. Over his career, he’s been a replacement-level starter on middling teams. 

Here’s one question I asked myself before pulling the lever on the Texas State under: When Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a dozen players from JMU with him … why didn’t he take McCloud?

James Madison Over 8.5 Wins (+135)

I don’t blame people who are bearish on James Madison in 2024. The amount of talent they lost from last year’s team, including Cignetti, was staggering. 

As I outlined in my James Madison football preview, former athletic director Jeff Bourne nailed yet another coaching hire with former Holy Cross coach Bob Chesney. 

There is no question that this roster isn’t as talented or deep as last year’s team that started 10-0 and attracted the largest College GameDay crowd of all time. But other than a Sept. 21 trip to North Carolina, I don’t see too many challenges before November on a very easy schedule.

JMU should be no worse than 6-2 as it heads into a Nov. 2 bye, meaning it will likely need somewhere between one and three wins in November to get to a nine-win season.

Ultimately, I think this first Chesney team of 2024 is quite far from the talent JMU showed last year. However, I think the record on paper will push toward another 10-win season. That makes JMU a good bet in the win totals department, but a lesser option in bigger futures markets like the Sun Belt championship or the CFP. I’d be careful betting JMU’s week-to-week college football lines, too.

SMU Over 8.5 Wins (+115)

I am a big fan of Southern Methodist in its inaugural ACC season and am loading up on SMU bets.

I think SMU compares favorably to Missouri. The Mustangs are a good-not-great team with a solid offense, a known commodity (Preston Stone) at quarterback, and a great schedule. 

SMU should open 4-0 with games against Nevada, Houston Christian, BYU, and rival TCU before critical games against Florida State and Louisville. If it can manage even a split of those games, an 11-1 record is clearly on the table. The stretch games after an Oct. 12 bye: at Stanford, at Duke, Pitt, Boston College, at Virginia, Cal.

No Miami. No Clemson. No Virginia Tech. 

With 15 starters back and a schedule this easy, SMU should cruise to nine wins. It could also sleepwalk into the ACC title game, which means…

SMU Wins ACC (+1200)

I don’t think SMU is the best team in the ACC, but with a schedule this easy, the Mustangs are going to have the record to compete for the title berth. Why not grab them now at +1200? They’ll have a puncher’s chance in a potential game even if they’re the inferior team. 

SMU to Make the Playoff (+1100)

Again, this position is worth sprinkling some money on because of the easy schedule and the big return. 

Imagine SMU goes 11-1, then loses in the ACC title game by 14 points. Aren’t the Mustangs at least in consideration for an at-large berth at that point, depending on what else is happening around the country? I’d much rather have the +1100 now than whatever greatly reduced price this will be available for on Nov. 1.

Washington Under 6.5 Wins (-120)

Moving into the Big Ten, I have some real concerns about the post-2023 shriveled husk that is Washington Huskies football.

Washington played in the national championship game last year, which is obviously a huge accomplishment. But the post-playoff brain drain is real, as Washington lost head coach Kalen DeBoer to Alabama and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the NFL Draft. A whopping 15 other starters are also gone.

Washington will begin its rebuild this year with former Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch in command and former Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers under center. 

It’s a ton of new pieces and a very challenging schedule. After tuneups against Weber State and Eastern Michigan, Washington has a run of challenging games, starting with rival Washington State in the Apple Cup on Sept. 14. Home games against Northwestern (Sept. 21) and UCLA (Nov. 16) are the only conference games Washington is likely to be favored. 

I see Washington having a similar season to Colorado a year ago, where the wheels just completely fall off with a shallow roster amid a challenging schedule. A win total at 6.5 feels like the market is treading off year-old accomplishments. This is a team that will really struggle to reach bowl eligibility. 

Rutgers Over 6.5 Wins (-105)

Rutgers football may not be a traditional Big Ten powerhouse, but I do think the Scarlet Knights really have something this year. A program that won six regular-season games last year returns eight starters on offense and eight starters on defense. 

Assuming a 2-1 start against Howard, Akron, and Virginia Tech, Rutgers needs to go 5-4 in the Big Ten portion of its schedule. That should be easy enough, considering the schedule includes loads of winnable games against the soft middle of the conference: Washington, Wisconsin, UCLA, Minnesota, Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan State.

Indiana Over 5.5 Wins (-150)

Indiana is a team I highlighted as one of the beneficiaries of the move away from divisional scheduling. It’s no longer stuck playing Penn State, Ohio State, and the Michigan schools every year.

That alone would be a reason to consider an uptick for Indiana. But the addition of Cignetti and about half of JMU’s excellent starting defense from 2023, plus a large infusion of NIL money from boosters, has me pretty bullish on the short-term future at Indiana. 

I’m a little skeptical about Kurtis Rourke coming over from the MAC to play quarterback, but I think Indiana is a clear bowl team this year. In fact, I think the Hoosiers could very well be 6-0 going into their bye week on Oct. 12.

West Virginia Over 6.5 Wins (-120)

West Virginia joins SMU and Missouri as a team I believe is being totally mishandled by preseason bettors. 

The calculation on West Virginia goes something like this: Just one year ago, Neal Brown was a very firm college football hot seat candidate, but he managed an 8-4 regular-season record against a schedule that turned out to be pretty easy. WVU avoided Texas, Kansas State, and Iowa State, three of the top five non-WVU finishers in 2023; this year, with Penn State still on the schedule and some luck regression, West Virginia will fall back toward the middle of the pack. 

Broadly speaking, that’s a fair assessment. The public perception of West Virginia is that it’s a middling program with a middling coach. 

While this certainly has been true for the last few years, I think there are reasons to believe in WVU in 2024. Garrett Greene is one of the best under-the-radar quarterbacks in college football, leading FBS in PFF’s big-time throws category for 2023. Neal Brown has finally had time to build the brand of offensive line and multi-pronged run game that made him great at Troy in the 2010s. New athletic director Wren Baker has helped foster a more modern NIL culture that helps WVU recruit more competitively. 

West Virginia is not a perfect team. Its defensive front will be weak by P4 standards, and I remain a bit skeptical about its depth and special teams play. But when you look at the numbers the betting markets are offering, it’s a no-brainer to play some of these numbers based on the value they carry. I like WVU to reach nine wins again this year. I like the over 6.5, and I have bought some alternate win total positions as well. 

West Virginia to Make the Playoff (+1500)

I’ll take a swing at WVU’s playoff odds because I like how the schedule unfolds. West Virginia has an excellent opportunity to grab headlines and eyeballs with a Week 1 game against Penn State. 

If the Mountaineers win one of the marquee games of the opening weekend, it will immediately enter the conversation for Big 12 contention and, by extension, CFP contention. There’s no substitute for a season-shifting win, and the Mountaineers can get theirs right away.

Garrett Greene to Win the Heisman Trophy (+20000)

I do not think that Garrett Greene is going to win the Heisman, but 200-to-1 is such a silly price that I want some exposure to the raw value there. I mean, he is currently the last guy in the table in BetMGM’s college football futures. Literally. Arch Manning is the backup quarterback at Texas, and even he has shorter Heisman odds than Greene.

When I say Garrett Greene is criminally underrated, here’s a good example.

Sat down for work this morning and pulled up the Heisman odds table. Checked for where Greene is priced.

He is 200-to-1. He is the literal last player in the table. The backup quarterback at Texas is… pic.twitter.com/rGxuf973WL

— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) August 19, 2024

I’ll burn a fractional unit to own some Greene Heisman stock on top of my other WVU futures. I might even end up with some major CLV that I can use positionally.