Boise State vs North Texas Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Frisco Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 16, 2022, 11:15 AM
  • Boise State (9-4) are -10.5 point favorites vs North Texas (7-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
  • Watch the Frisco Bowl game on ESPN

The North Texas Mean Green (10-4) visit Toyota Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos (7-7) on Dec. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:15pm EST in Frisco for the Frisco Bowl.

are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at ().

The Boise State vs. North Texas Over/Under is total points.

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Boise State vs. North Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Bowl Game:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Boise State
North Texas

Boise State vs North Texas Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 75.8% confidence.

Boise State vs North Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boise State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Boise State and North Texas, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best North Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Texas players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • George Holani has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+11.45 Units / 42% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • North Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • North Texas have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games at home (+3.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Boise State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Boise State is 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 6.74% ROI
  • Boise State is 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI
  • Boise State is 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / -26.57% ROI

North Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Texas has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • North Texas is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -9.58% ROI
  • North Texas is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • North Texas is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. North Texas

North Texas is undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for best in FBS; Average: .561

North Texas is 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– 10th-best in FBS; Average: .562

North Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

Boise State is 12-1 (.923) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .550

Boise State is 15-3 (.789) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season– tied for 6th-best in FBS; Average: .542

Boise State is 12-3 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-best in FBS; Average: .515

Boise State is 12-4 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season– 13th-best in FBS; Average: .540

Matchup Notes for Boise State vs. North Texas

North Texas’s RBs has 5 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS RBs. Boise State’s defense has allowed 11 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for third-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

North Texas WRs have averaged 18.5 yards per reception (1,743 yards/94 catches) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

North Texas RBs have averaged 200.3 rushing yards per game (4,606/23) since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 132.5

North Texas Skill Players have averaged 15.7 yards per reception (2,607 yards/166 catches) this season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

North Texas RBs have averaged 37.0 carries per game (850 carries / 23 games) since last season– 4th highest among FBS Teams; Average: 26.4

North Texas RBs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

North Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State QBs have rushed for 181 yards in close and late situations this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Boise State QBs have averaged 16.5 Yards per Carry (181 yards/11 carries) in close and late situations this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 2.4

Boise State RBs have 10 receptions in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Boise State WRs have fumbled 13 times since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Boise State QBs have averaged 10.1 Yards per Carry (202 yards/20 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 2.4

North Texas Mean Green Defensive Stats & Trends

North Texas has allowed first downs on 50% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 28%

North Texas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 75 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

North Texas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 38 of 402 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

North Texas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 70 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

North Texas has allowed first downs on 50% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 29%

Boise State Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State has not recorded a sack (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15.8

Boise State opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (63 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.9

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 81.3 in the Red Zone (63.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 166.1

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 41.3 in the Red Zone (24.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 164.5

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 41.3 in the Red Zone (24.0 Pass Attempts) this season– best in FBS; Average: 161.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.