BYU vs SMU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 2

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SMU quarterback Preston Stone (2) during the first half of an NCAA college football game against SMU, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023, in Norman, Okla. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)
(AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 03, 2024, 6:24 PM
  • SMU is a -10.5 point favorite vs. BYU
  • BYU vs. SMU Total(Over/Under): 56.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN2

The BYU Cougars 1-0 visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs 2-0 on Sep. 6 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.

SMU is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The BYU vs. SMU Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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BYU vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
BYU+10.5 -11056.5 -110+310
SMU -10.5 -11056.5 -110-400

BYU vs SMU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 76.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

BYU vs SMU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 66.8% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both BYU and SMU and key player performances this season.


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  • BYU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 64% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 11% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for BYU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best BYU Player Prop Bets Today

  • LJ Martin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Chase Roberts has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Keanu Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best SMU Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Preston Stone has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Jaylan Knighton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kevin Jennings has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

BYU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

BYU was 5-6 against the spread last college football season (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI).

  • BYU was 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -21.18% ROI
  • BYU was 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
  • BYU was 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.15 Units / -100% ROI).

  • SMU was 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.4% ROI
  • SMU was 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • SMU was 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

BYU: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

BYU was winless (0-5) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .502

BYU is 2-9 (.182) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .436

BYU is 1-8 (.100) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .324

BYU is 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– 21st-best in FBS; Average: .580

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. BYU

SMU is winless (0-3) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .445

SMU is winless (0-3) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .364

SMU is winless (0-3) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .412

SMU is winless (0-3) when not forcing a fumble since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .441

Matchup Notes for BYU vs. SMU

SMU’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 434 attempts last season — 23rd-best among FBS offenses. BYU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.0% of attempts last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

SMU gained 3,409 yards on 248 receptions (13.7 YPR) last season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. BYU’s defense allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

SMU’s offense averaged 2.3 passing TDs per game last season — T-14th-best among FBS offenses. BYU’s defense allowed 1.8 passing TDs per game last season — T-3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s WRs gained 1,815 yards on 144 receptions (just 12.6 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among Big 12 WRs. SMU’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU’s WRs had just 151.2 receiving yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 WRs. SMU’s defense allowed just 186.7 receiving yards per game last season — 18th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU gained 2,427 yards on 217 receptions (just 11.2 YPR) last season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 skill players. SMU’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU Offensive Stats & Trends

BYU Skill Players have averaged just 9.8 yards per reception (576 yards/59 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.2

BYU Skill Players averaged just 8.1 yards per reception (285 yards/35 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.5

BYU’s WRs gained 1,815 yards on 144 receptions (just 12.6 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among Big 12 WRs. SMU’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU Skill Players averaged just 8.1 yards per reception (285 yards/35 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

BYU TEs have averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (123 yards/14 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.3

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 434 attempts last season — 23rd-best among FBS offenses. BYU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.0% of attempts last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

SMU Skill Players have averaged 17.8 yards per reception (160 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.0

SMU QBs have 40 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2022 season– most among FBS Teams

SMU Skill Players have 143 receptions for 20 or more yards since the 2022 season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

SMU Skill Players have been targeted 498 times since the 2022 season– fewest among Power Conference Teams

BYU Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

BYU sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/408) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

BYU has averaged 1.1 sacks per game since the 2022 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 2.0

BYU has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (28/839) since the 2022 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

BYU has sacked opposing QBs just once on 99 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 15.9

BYU has averaged a sack every 30.0 pass attempts (839 Pass Attempts/28 Sacks) since the 2022 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16.2

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU has no interceptions and 11 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5

SMU has allowed first downs on 33% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

SMU has no interceptions (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.0

SMU has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (51/480) since the 2022 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

SMU has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 30 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.