Colorado St vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

BetMGM Betting Aug 30, 2024, 6:43 PM

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FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisian’s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)

(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

Texas is a -32.5 point favorite vs. Colorado St
Colorado State vs. Texas Total(Over/Under): 59.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Colorado State Rams 0-0 visit Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns 0-0 on Aug. 31 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -32.5 (-110).

The Colorado State vs. Texas Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

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Colorado State vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Colorado State	+32.5 -110	59.5 -110	+
Texas	-32.5 -110	59.5 -110	+

Colorado State vs Texas Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Colorado State vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Colorado State will cover the spread with 58.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Colorado St and Texas, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

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Colorado State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Colorado State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 29% ROI)

Colorado State has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

Colorado State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.05 Units / 97% ROI)

Colorado State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.85 Units / 43% ROI)

Colorado State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.75 Units / 37% ROI)

Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+11.20 Units / 6% ROI)

Texas has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.95 Units / 4% ROI)

Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.15 Units / 20% ROI)

Texas have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 89% ROI)

Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Colorado State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colorado State Player Prop Bets Today

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)

Tory Horton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 46% ROI)

Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)

CJ Baxter has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Colorado State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Colorado St was 4-7 against the spread last college football season (-3.7 Units / -30.71% ROI).

Colorado State was 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -15.38% ROI
Colorado State was 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Colorado State was 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 7-6 against the spread this college football season (+0.3 Units / 1.94% ROI).

Texas was 12-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.95 Units / 4.15% ROI
Texas was 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
Texas was 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI

Colorado State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Colorado State is 2-13 (.133) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2022 season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .398

Colorado State is 4-13 (.235) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .393

Colorado State is 1-9 (.091) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .407

Colorado State is 5-15 (.227) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .398

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Colorado State

Texas was undefeated (8-0) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .461

Texas is 14-3 (.824) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .455

Texas was undefeated (6-0) when not losing a fumble in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .456

Texas is 17-4 (.810) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2022 season– 12th-best in FBS; Average: .559

Matchup Notes for Colorado State vs. Texas

Texas’s TEs had 59 receptions in 14 games (4.2 per game) last season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Colorado State’s defense allowed 24.9 receptions per game last season — worst among FBS defenses.

Texas’s QBs threw for 3,986 passing yards in 14 games (284.7 YPG) last season — 18th-best among FBS teams. Colorado State’s defense allowed 270.4 passing yards per game last season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado State’s QBs threw for 3,309 passing yards in 11 games (300.8 YPG) last season — 11th-best among FBS teams. Texas’s defense allowed 254.4 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado State’s TEs had 66 receptions in 11 games (6.0 per game) last season — T-4th-best among FBS TEs. Texas’s defense allowed 4.2 receptions per game to TEs last season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado State Offensive Stats & Trends

Colorado State TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Colorado State TEs were targeted 6.3 times per game (76/12) in the 2nd half in the 2023 season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.5

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas TEs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 1.9

Texas TEs have no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 1.9

Texas WRs have averaged just 8.4 yards per reception (67 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 14.5

Colorado State Rams Defensive Stats & Trends

Colorado State allowed a Completion Pct of 79% (45 completions/57 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go in the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Colorado State tackled opponents for a loss on 19 of 80 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Colorado State allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (278 completions/388 attempts) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Colorado State allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (278 completions/388 attempts) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Colorado State tackled opponents for a loss on 19 of 80 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 72 carries (10.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– best in the SEC; Average: 5

Texas has allowed just 10.0 yards per completion (3,155 yards/316 completions) since the 2022 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 12.0

Texas allowed 7 rushing TDs on 72 carries (10.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.7

Texas has allowed 6.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,789 yards / 783 touches) since the 2022 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 7.0

Texas has allowed 17 rushing TDs on 134 carries (7.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.7