Colorado vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 3:05 PM
  • USC (8-1) are -34.5 point favorites vs Colorado (1-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 66 points
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Colorado Buffaloes (1-10) visit Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on the USC Trojans (10-1) on Nov. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30pm EST in Los Angeles.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Colorado vs. USC is total points.

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Colorado vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Colorado
USC

Colorado vs USC Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 78.6% confidence.

Colorado vs USC Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts USC will cover the spread with 64.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Colorado and USC, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best USC Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for USC players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Caleb Williams has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.30 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Caleb Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Caleb Williams has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Jordan Addison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+2.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Mario Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • USC has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
  • USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • USC has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • USC has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • USC has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Colorado Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Colorado has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Colorado is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -18.57% ROI
  • Colorado is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Colorado is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • USC is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 12.86% ROI
  • USC is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • USC is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Colorado: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Colorado is winless (0-10) when intercepting no passes — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .353

Colorado is 2-15 (.118) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards — tied for 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .451

Colorado is 1-13 (.071) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Colorado is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 200 or more passing yards — tied for 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .465

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Colorado

#12 USC is 6-2 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — 9th-best in FBS; Average: .437

#6 USC is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .493

#12 USC is 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties — 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .522

#6 USC is 5-1 (.833) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .431

Matchup Notes for Colorado vs. USC

USC has 20 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — most among FBS skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 14 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — most among P5 defenses.

USC’s WRs have 278.0 receiving yards per game this season — third-best among Power 5 WRs. Colorado’s defense has allowed 248.8 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among Pac-12 defenses.

USC has 27 receiving touchdowns this season — most among FBS skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 18 receiving touchdowns this season — most among Pac-12 defenses.

Colorado’s WRs have just 110.8 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among Power 5 WRs. USC’s defense has allowed 256.9 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among Pac-12 defenses.

Colorado have just 151.4 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst among Power 5 skill players. USC’s defense has allowed 256.9 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among Pac-12 defenses.

Colorado Offensive Stats & Trends

Colorado RBs have averaged 19.0 yards per reception (95 yards/5 catches) in the 1st half this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1

Colorado Skill Players have caught just 120 of 238 passes (50% Reception Pct) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 65%

Colorado WRs have averaged 20.2 yards per reception (545 yards/27 catches) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.9

Colorado Skill Players have caught just 120 of 238 passes (50% Reception Pct) this season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 64%

Colorado’s WRs have just 110.8 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among Power 5 WRs. USC’s defense has allowed 256.9 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — worst among Pac-12 defenses.

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

#8 USC WRs have 25 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among Power 5 Teams

#8 USC Skill Players have caught 20 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Power 5 Teams

#8 USC WRs have 52 receptions in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

#8 USC WRs have 52 receptions in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

#8 USC WRs have 25 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

Colorado Buffaloes Defensive Stats & Trends

Colorado has averaged a sack every 33.6 pass attempts (638 Pass Attempts/19 Sacks) since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 14.2

Colorado has averaged a sack every 33.6 pass attempts (638 Pass Attempts/19 Sacks) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.2

Colorado has allowed 14 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Power 5 Teams

Colorado has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (19/638) since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Colorado has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (19/638) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

USC Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

#8 USC has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 33 of 128 carries (26%) on 1st down this season– worst in FBS; Average: 13%

#8 USC has averaged 3.6 sacks per game this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.2

#8 USC has averaged 3.6 sacks per game this season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 2.2

#8 USC has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 33 of 128 carries (26%) on 1st down this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13%

#8 USC’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 16% of PATs this season– tied for 4th highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.