Florida vs Georgia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 01, 2024, 3:24 PM

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Georgia head coach Kirby Smart watches a play during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game against Alabama in Atlanta, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

(AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Georgia is a -16.5 point favorite vs. Florida
Florida vs. Georgia Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Florida Gators (4-3) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) on Nov. 2 in Jacksonville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Georgia is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -16.5 (-110).

The Florida vs. Georgia Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Florida vs. Georgia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Florida	+16.5 -110	52.5 -110	+550
Georgia	-16.5 -110	52.5 -110	-800

Florida vs Georgia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Georgia will win this game with 88.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Georgia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Florida vs Georgia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Georgia will cover the spread with 60.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+4.40 Units / 147% ROI)
Florida have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Georgia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Georgia has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Georgia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Georgia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Georgia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Player Prop Bets Today

DJ Lagway has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Eugene Wilson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
DJ Lagway has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Graham Mertz has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Elijhah Badger has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Georgia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Georgia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Arian Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Dominic Lovett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Carson Beck has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Trevor Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dillon Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI).

Florida is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 1.97% ROI
Florida is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Florida is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Georgia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia is 2-5 against the spread this college football season (-3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI).

Georgia is 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 6.54% ROI
Georgia is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.45 Units / -45.1% ROI
Georgia is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.13% ROI

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia

Florida is 2-7 (.222) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .442

Florida is 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .640

Florida is 4-9 (.308) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– 15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .476

Florida is 10-2 (.833) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .753

Georgia: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Georgia is 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .436

Georgia is 14-1 (.933) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .600

Georgia is 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .485

Georgia is undefeated (18-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .638

Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Georgia

Georgia’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.4% of 262 attempts this season — 20th-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.0% of attempts this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s offense has averaged 2.1 passing TDs per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense has allowed just 1.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia has 2.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-28th-best among FBS skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed just 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.4% of 183 attempts this season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida’s RBs has averaged just 4.9 yards after the catch this season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 5.3 RAC to RBs this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida has gained 1,845 yards on 128 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — T-8th-best among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida WRs have averaged just 1.0 yards per reception (1 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.5

Florida WRs have averaged just 1.0 yards per reception (1 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.2

Georgia Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia TEs have been targeted 33 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

Georgia TEs have been targeted 33 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Georgia WRs have caught 25 of 32 passes (78% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 57%

Georgia TEs have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 23 of 525 attempts (4%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 23 of 525 attempts (4%) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Florida has intercepted 9 of 525 attempts (58.3 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 34.2

Florida allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7

Florida allowed passes of 40+ yards on 20 of 325 attempts (6%) in the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Georgia Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (40 completions/99 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Georgia has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 4 of 99 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 9%

Georgia has allowed opponents to catch just 40 of 98 passes (41% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 55%

Georgia has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 23 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Georgia has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 12 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.