Fresno St vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 26, 2024, 2:46 PM

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UCLA running back TJ Harden (25) runs during an NCAA college football game against Stanford, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

(AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

UCLA is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Fresno St
Fresno State vs. UCLA Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: BTN

The Fresno State Bulldogs (6-5) visit Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA Bruins (4-7) on Nov. 30 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

UCLA is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Fresno State vs. UCLA Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Fresno State vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Fresno State	+9.5 -110	46.5 -110	+275
UCLA	-9.5 -110	46.5 -110	-350

Fresno State vs UCLA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCLA will win this game with 75.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno St and UCLA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Fresno State vs UCLA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 73.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Fresno State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Fresno State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Fresno State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)

UCLA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
UCLA have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.25 Units / 17% ROI)
UCLA have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)
UCLA has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+1.20 Units / 7% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Fresno State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Fresno State Player Prop Bets Today

Raylen Sharpe has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mac Dalena has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UCLA players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCLA Player Prop Best Bets Today

Moliki Matavao has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kwazi Gilmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Logan Loya has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ethan Garbers has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Fresno St is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -4.13% ROI).

Fresno State is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -12.02% ROI
Fresno State is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Fresno State is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.55 Units / 4.56% ROI).

UCLA is 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 1.27% ROI
UCLA is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.45% ROI
UCLA is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.65 Units / 21.99% ROI

Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Fresno State is 6-1 (.857) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .522

Fresno State is 9-2 (.818) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .601

Fresno State is 5-1 (.833) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– 7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .564

Fresno State is 11-1 (.917) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .622

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State

UCLA is 3-7 (.300) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471

UCLA is 10-2 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .667

UCLA is 2-7 (.222) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504

UCLA is 2-5 (.286) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Matchup Notes for Fresno State vs. UCLA

UCLA’s TEs has 55 receptions in 11 games (5.0 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed just 2.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA has gained 2,618 yards on 233 receptions (just 11.2 YPR) this season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Fresno State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s RBs has averaged 9.5 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-best among FBS RBs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.9% of 869 attempts since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS offenses. UCLA’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State’s offense has thrown for 6,351 passing yards in 24 games (264.6 YPG) since the 2023 season — 27th-best among FBS offenses. UCLA’s defense has allowed 232.8 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Fresno State has 249 receptions in 11 games (22.6 per game) this season — 27th-best among FBS skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 21.7 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State QBs have averaged just -2.8 Yards per Carry (-161 yards/57 carries) in the 1st half since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 3.1

Fresno State RBs averaged 13.3 Yards per Carry (146 yards/11 carries) in the 1st half last week– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Fresno State RBs have averaged 3.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (313 yards / 83 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– T-5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA TEs averaged 18.7 yards per reception (431 yards/23 catches) in the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.9

UCLA RBs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

UCLA’s RBs has averaged 9.5 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-best among FBS RBs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Fresno State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 64 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Fresno State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 29 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (210 completions/395 attempts) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (432 completions/794 attempts) since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Fresno State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 29 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

UCLA Bruins Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 134 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 134 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 14%.

UCLA has allowed 9 TDs in close and late situations this season– T-2nd-most in FBS

UCLA has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 3 of their 332 carries (1%) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 3%

UCLA has allowed 9 TDs in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams