Fresno State vs New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 8:10 AM
  • (3-5) are point favorites vs (3-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The Fresno State Bulldogs (4-4) visit University Stadium (NM) to take on the New Mexico Lobos (2-6) on Oct. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Albuquerque.

are betting favorites in Week 8, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Fresno State vs. New Mexico is total points.

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Fresno State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 8

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Fresno State
New Mexico

Fresno State vs New Mexico Prediction for Week 8

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 68.1% confidence.

Fresno State vs New Mexico Spread Prediction for Week 8

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 79.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno State and New Mexico, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Fresno State have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.30 Units / 81% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • New Mexico has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+3.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • New Mexico have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Fresno State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Fresno State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Fresno State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Fresno State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    New Mexico has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • New Mexico is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • New Mexico is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • New Mexico is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    New Mexico: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State

    New Mexico is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2020 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .367

    Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends

    Fresno State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 35.3 receptions (106 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

    Fresno State QBs have 49 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down since last season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

    Fresno State WRs have caught 106 of 140 passes (76% Reception Pct) this season– tied for 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 63%

    Fresno State Skill Players have 3,038 receiving yards on 1st down since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

    Fresno State Skill Players have been targeted 309 times on 1st down since last season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

    New Mexico Offensive Stats & Trends

    New Mexico Skill Players have averaged just 4.1 yards per reception (77 yards/19 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

    New Mexico WRs have averaged just 5.5 yards per reception (66 yards/12 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

    New Mexico Skill Players have averaged just 11.7 receptions per game (211/18) since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

    New Mexico Skill Players have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

    New Mexico RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 73 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations since last season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 23.5

    Fresno State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

    Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (311 completions/587 attempts) since last season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

    Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (31 completions/81 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 54%

    Fresno State has allowed opponents to catch just 31 of 80 passes (39% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

    Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (311 completions/587 attempts) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

    Fresno State has allowed a passer rating of just 123.9 in the Red Zone (81.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 169.0

    New Mexico Lobos Defensive Stats & Trends

    New Mexico has allowed first downs on 3% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 28%

    New Mexico has allowed 249.7 yards from scrimmage per game this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 388.3

    New Mexico has allowed first downs on 17% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 28%

    New Mexico has allowed just 152.5 receiving yards per game (915/6) this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 232.4

    New Mexico has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 12 of 180 carries (7%) this season– tied for 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 13%


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