Kansas vs Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2024, 4:11 PM

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Kansas State running back DJ Giddens runs the ball during the first half of an NCAA college football game against TCU Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

The Kansas State is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Kansas
The Kansas vs. Kansas State Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

The Kansas Jayhawks (2-5) visit Bill Snyder Family Stadium to take on the Kansas State Wildcats (6-1) on Oct. 26 in Manhattan, KS. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.

Kansas State is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-115).

The Kansas vs. Kansas State Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Kansas vs. Kansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kansas	+10.5 -105	55.5 -110	+325
Kansas State	-10.5 -115	55.5 -110	-450

Kansas vs Kansas State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Kansas State will win this game with 77.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas and Kansas State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kansas vs Kansas State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kansas State will cover the spread with 65.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.05 Units / 69% ROI)
Kansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Kansas has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Kansas have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 25% ROI)
Kansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.50 Units / 3% ROI)

Kansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
Kansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Kansas State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Kansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Kansas State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+1.75 Units / 4% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas Player Prop Bets Today

Devin Neal has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jalon Daniels has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Lawrence Arnold has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Quentin Skinner has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Jalon Daniels has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kansas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Avery Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Avery Johnson has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Keagan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Avery Johnson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 100% ROI)
DJ Giddens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Kansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas is 1-6 against the spread this college football season (-5.65 Units / -72.9% ROI).

Kansas is 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.75 Units / -72.09% ROI
Kansas is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Kansas is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Kansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas State is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.35 Units / -17.76% ROI).

Kansas State is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 15.44% ROI
Kansas State is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Kansas State is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Kansas: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas State

Kansas is 6-8 (.429) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .594

Kansas is 9-3 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .540

Kansas was 9-2 (.818) when rushing more than 30 times in the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .622

Kansas was 8-2 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .533

Kansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas

Kansas State is 9-2 (.818) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Kansas State is 8-3 (.727) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .540

Kansas State is 15-4 (.789) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .639

Kansas State is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .700

Matchup Notes for Kansas vs. Kansas State

Kansas State’s TEs has gained 1,147 yards on 92 receptions (12.5 YPR) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 TEs. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State’s RBs has averaged 11.0 yards after the catch this season — 26th-best among FBS RBs. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs has 26 receptions in 7 games (3.7 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 1.7 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s RBs has rushed for 3,384 yards on 576 carries (5.9 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-9th-best among FBS RBs. Kansas State’s defense have allowed just 4.1 YPC since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s TEs has 16 receptions in 7 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s TEs has 16 receptions in 7 games (just 2.3 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Kansas State’s defense has allowed just 2.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas have just 194.7 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 250.3 receiving yards per game this season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas RBs have averaged 10.4 Yards per Carry (94 yards/9 carries) in close and late situations this season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Kansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas State Skill Players have averaged 15.9 yards per reception (302 yards/19 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.8

Kansas State TEs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Kansas State TEs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Kansas State TEs have caught 16 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Big 12 Teams

Kansas State TEs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Kansas Jayhawks Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in FBS; Average: 7%

Kansas’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 26% of PATs in the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 8%

Kansas has allowed a Completion Pct of 66% (58 completions/88 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

Kansas State Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 22 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 16%.

Kansas State has allowed 83.1 rushing yards per game (582/7) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 147.5

Kansas State has allowed 2.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (215 yards / 84 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 3.8

Kansas State opponents averaged 8.0 Passing Attempts per TD (40 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.9

Kansas State has sacked opponents 10 times on 1st down this season– most in the Big 12