- Liberty is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Middle Tenn State
- Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSSN
The Liberty Flames (5-2) visit Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-6) on Nov. 9 in Murfreesboro, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST.
Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).
The Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Liberty | -10.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -400 |
| Middle Tennessee | +10.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +310 |
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 77.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Liberty and Middle Tenn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 87.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Middle Tenn State vs Liberty and all games with BetMGM
Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 4 away games (+0.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 4 away games (+0.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Middle Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.00 Units / 11% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Liberty players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Liberty Player Prop Bets Today
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the TD Passes Over in his last away game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
- Tyson Mobley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Billy Lucas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Middle Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Middle Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Holden Willis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Omari Kelly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty is 1-6 against the spread this college football season (-5.6 Units / -72.73% ROI).
- Liberty is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -37.35 Units / -38.37% ROI
- Liberty is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -3.9% ROI
- Liberty is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -3.9% ROI
Middle Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Middle Tenn State is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Middle Tennessee is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -39.11% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Middle Tennessee
Liberty is 13-3 (.812) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .382
Liberty is 15-1 (.882) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551
Liberty is 10-2 (.769) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400
Liberty is undefeated (15-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .621
Middle Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
Middle Tennessee is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .443
Middle Tennessee is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-13th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .437
Middle Tennessee is 3-12 (.200) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-15th-worst in FBS; Average: .425
Middle Tennessee is 2-7 (.222) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .354
Matchup Notes for Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee has just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s WRs has 350 receptions in 21 games (16.7 per game) since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s WRs has averaged 25.5 targets per game since the 2023 season — T-16th-highest among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s WRs has 219 receptions in 21 games (just 10.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Liberty has 289 receptions in 21 games (just 13.8 per game) since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS skill players. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s WRs has 219 receptions in 21 games (just 10.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty’s WRs has 219 receptions in 21 games (just 10.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Liberty has 289 receptions in 21 games (just 13.8 per game) since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS skill players. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s WRs has 219 receptions in 21 games (just 10.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty Skill Players have averaged 18.4 yards per reception (478 yards/26 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0
Liberty WRs have averaged 22.2 yards per reception (556 yards/25 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4
Middle Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee has just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Middle Tennessee TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Middle Tennessee’s WRs has 350 receptions in 21 games (16.7 per game) since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s WRs has averaged 25.5 targets per game since the 2023 season — T-16th-highest among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee TEs have 228 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty has allowed one passing TD (14 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Liberty has allowed one passing TD (14 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Liberty has not allowed a first down on a pass in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 24%
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Defensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee has allowed 13 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most in FBS
Middle Tennessee has allowed 13 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Middle Tennessee has no interceptions (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.9
Middle Tennessee has no interceptions and 13 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1
Middle Tennessee has allowed 11 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– 4th-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
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