Liberty vs Middle Tenn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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Middle Tennessee quarterback Nicholas Vattiato (11) throws a pass against Murray State during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, in Murfreesboro, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

(AP Photo/George Walker IV)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 05, 2024, 3:12 PM

Liberty is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Middle Tenn State
Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
TV Channel: CBSSN

The Liberty Flames (5-2) visit Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-6) on Nov. 9 in Murfreesboro, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST.

Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Liberty	-10.5 -110	54.5 -115	-400
Middle Tennessee	+10.5 -110	54.5 -105	+310

Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 77.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Liberty and Middle Tenn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 87.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 4 away games (+0.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 4 away games (+0.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Middle Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Middle Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 29% ROI)
Middle Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 19% ROI)
Middle Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.00 Units / 11% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Liberty players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Liberty Player Prop Bets Today

Kaidon Salter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaidon Salter has hit the TD Passes Over in his last away game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
Tyson Mobley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaidon Salter has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Billy Lucas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Middle Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Middle Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today

Holden Willis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Nicholas Vattiato has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
Nicholas Vattiato has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Omari Kelly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Liberty is 1-6 against the spread this college football season (-5.6 Units / -72.73% ROI).

Liberty is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -37.35 Units / -38.37% ROI
Liberty is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -3.9% ROI
Liberty is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -3.9% ROI

Middle Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Middle Tenn State is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Middle Tennessee is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -39.11% ROI
Middle Tennessee is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Middle Tennessee is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Middle Tennessee

Liberty is 13-3 (.812) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .382

Liberty is 15-1 (.882) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551

Liberty is 10-2 (.769) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400

Liberty is undefeated (15-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .621

Middle Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty

Middle Tennessee is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .443

Middle Tennessee is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-13th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .437

Middle Tennessee is 3-12 (.200) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-15th-worst in FBS; Average: .425

Middle Tennessee is 2-7 (.222) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .354

Matchup Notes for Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee has just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Middle Tennessee’s WRs has 350 receptions in 21 games (16.7 per game) since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Middle Tennessee’s WRs has averaged 25.5 targets per game since the 2023 season — T-16th-highest among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Liberty’s WRs has 219 receptions in 21 games (just 10.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Liberty has 289 receptions in 21 games (just 13.8 per game) since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS skill players. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 21.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends

Liberty Skill Players have averaged 18.4 yards per reception (478 yards/26 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

Liberty WRs have averaged 22.2 yards per reception (556 yards/25 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

Middle Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends

Middle Tennessee TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Middle Tennessee TEs have 228 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends

Liberty has allowed one passing TD (14 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Liberty has allowed one passing TD (14 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4

Liberty has not allowed a first down on a pass in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 24%

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Defensive Stats & Trends

Middle Tennessee has allowed 13 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most in FBS

Middle Tennessee has allowed 13 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Middle Tennessee has no interceptions (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.9

Middle Tennessee has no interceptions and 13 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

Middle Tennessee has allowed 11 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– 4th-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

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