Massachusetts vs Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:40 PM
  • Arkansas State (2-7) are -17.5 point favorites vs Massachusetts (1-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN3

The UMass Minutemen (1-10) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-8) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Jonesboro.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Massachusetts vs. Arkansas State is total points.

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Massachusetts vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Massachusetts
Arkansas State

Massachusetts vs Arkansas State Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Massachusetts will win this game with 59% confidence.

Massachusetts vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 54% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Massachusetts and Arkansas State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Massachusetts has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Massachusetts have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Massachusetts has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Massachusetts has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Massachusetts has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.70 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Massachusetts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Massachusetts has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Massachusetts is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -70.14% ROI
  • Massachusetts is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
  • Massachusetts is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Arkansas State is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -58.14% ROI
  • Arkansas State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Arkansas State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Massachusetts: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

UMass is winless (0-15) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .423

UMass is winless (0-15) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .399

UMass is winless (0-15) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .284

UMass is 1-14 (.059) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .406

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Massachusetts

Arkansas State is 2-16 (.111) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards — 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .451

Arkansas State is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .404

Arkansas State is 1-10 (.091) when not forcing a fumble — tied for 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .441

Arkansas State is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes — tied for 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .437

Matchup Notes for Massachusetts vs. Arkansas State

UMass’s WRs has 8 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — third-fewest among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 46 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — third-most among NonP5 defenses.

UMass has 11 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — second-fewest among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 46 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fifth-most among FBS defenses.

UMass’s WRs has 8 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — third-fewest among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 46 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fifth-most among FBS defenses.

Massachusetts Offensive Stats & Trends

UMass Skill Players have averaged just 9.2 receptions per game (74/8) this season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.4

UMass Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 37.0 receptions (74 Rec/2 TDs) this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

UMass Skill Players have no touchdowns on 28 receptions in close and late situations since last season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

UMass Skill Players have averaged just 11.2 receptions per game (224/20) since last season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

UMass has averaged 102.0 Passing Yards per game (816/8) this season– 4th worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 235.4*

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State RBs have averaged just 3.6 Yards per Carry (709 yards/197 carries) this season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Arkansas State TEs have 187 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Arkansas State RBs have averaged 3.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (435 yards / 128 touches) on 1st down this season– tied for 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Arkansas State RBs have averaged just 3.6 Yards per Carry (815 yards/226 carries) in the 1st half since last season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 4.9

Arkansas State RBs have averaged 4.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (946 yards / 233 touches) this season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

UMass Minutemen Defensive Stats & Trends

UMass has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 52 of their 799 carries (7%) since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 3%

UMass has allowed 4.5 touchdowns per interception (36 TDs allowed, and 8 INT) since last season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 1.9

UMass has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 52 of their 799 carries (7%) since last season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 4%

UMass has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (12 completions/31 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

UMass has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 78 of 504 attempts (15%) since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 10%

Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (53 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.0

Arkansas State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 14 of 224 attempts (6%) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

Arkansas State has allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– tied for 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Arkansas State has allowed 6.7 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.0

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (53 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 16.0


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

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