- The Michigan is a -3 point favorite vs. Illinois
- The Michigan vs. Illinois Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- TV Channel: CBS
The Michigan Wolverines (4-2) visit Memorial Stadium to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) on Oct. 19 in Champaign, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Michigan is a betting favorite in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).
The Michigan vs. Illinois Over/Under is 43.5 total points.
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Michigan vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Michigan | -3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -165 |
| Illinois | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +135 |
Michigan vs Illinois Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 54.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan and Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Michigan vs Illinois Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 72.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 2% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.30 Units / 21% ROI)
Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 3% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.65 Units / 21% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan Player Prop Bets Today
- Colston Loveland has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Davis Warren has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Tyler Morris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Donovan Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Donovan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tanner Arkin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Kaden Feagin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Luke Altmyer has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaden Feagin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan is 1-5 against the spread this college football season (-4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI).
- Michigan is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 5.88% ROI
- Michigan is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Michigan is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 43.94% ROI).
- Illinois is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.6 Units / 5.04% ROI
- Illinois is 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Illinois is 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois
Michigan is 8-1 (.889) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .438
Michigan was undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .420
Michigan is undefeated (12-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .684
Michigan is 8-1 (.889) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .491
Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan
Illinois is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .710
Illinois is 8-2 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .680
Illinois is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .613
Illinois is 9-5 (.643) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 37th-best in FBS; Average: .506
Matchup Notes for Michigan vs. Illinois
Illinois’s TEs has 12 receptions in 6 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 25.0 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Illinois has gained 1,446 yards on 111 receptions (13.0 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 12 receptions in 6 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 4.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 5.3% of 133 attempts this season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 9.7% of attempts this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan’s WRs have just 46.7 receiving yards per game this season — worst among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 126.5 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s WRs has averaged just 9.0 yards after the catch this season — worst among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 15.9 RAC to TEs this season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan WRs have averaged just 9.0 yards per reception (280 yards/31 catches) this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.3
Michigan WRs have averaged just 7.0 yards per reception (56 yards/8 catches) on 1st down this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.8
Michigan Skill Players have averaged just 8.5 yards per reception (690 yards/81 catches) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.4
Michigan Skill Players have averaged just 6.7 yards per reception (174 yards/26 catches) on 1st down this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.2
Michigan WRs have averaged just 9.0 yards per reception (280 yards/31 catches) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.6
Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Illinois’s TEs has 12 receptions in 6 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 25.0 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Illinois has gained 1,446 yards on 111 receptions (13.0 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois WRs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards last week– most among Big Ten Teams
Illinois WRs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Illinois’s TEs has 12 receptions in 6 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed 4.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2
Michigan has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 13 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.
Michigan allowed 8 touchdowns on 229 completions (28.6 Completions Per TD) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.8
Michigan allowed 8 touchdowns on 229 completions (28.6 Completions Per TD) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 12.2
Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1
Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends
Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 19 of 197 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 16%.
Illinois has not recorded a sack (24 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 16.7
Illinois has not recorded a sack (24 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.5
Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 11 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.
Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 11 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.
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