Michigan vs Indiana Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:23 PM

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Indiana wide receiver Donaven McCulley (1) runs during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Indiana State, Friday, Sept. 8, 2023, in Bloomington, Ind. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Indiana is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Michigan
Michigan vs. Indiana Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: CBS

The Michigan Wolverines (5-4) visit Memorial Stadium to take on the Indiana Hoosiers (9-0) on Nov. 9 in Bloomington, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Indiana is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).

The Michigan vs. Indiana Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Michigan vs. Indiana Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Michigan	+14.5 -115	48.5 -110	+450
Indiana	-14.5 -105	48.5 -110	-650

Michigan vs Indiana Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Indiana will win this game with 84.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan and Indiana, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Michigan vs Indiana Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Indiana will cover the spread with 65.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Michigan has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Indiana Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Indiana has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Indiana have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Indiana has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Indiana have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
Indiana has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.30 Units / 4% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Michigan Player Prop Bets Today

Kalel Mullings has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Colston Loveland has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Davis Warren has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Davis Warren has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Semaj Morgan has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Indiana players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Indiana Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tayven Jackson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Omar Cooper Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tayven Jackson has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.7 Units / -57.29% ROI).

Michigan is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 1.13% ROI
Michigan is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Michigan is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Indiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Indiana is 8-1 against the spread this college football season (+6.9 Units / 69.7% ROI).

Indiana is 8-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +8 Units / 8.21% ROI
Indiana is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
Indiana is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Indiana

Michigan is 15-1 (.938) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .607

Michigan is undefeated (20-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .785

Michigan is 16-1 (.941) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .679

Michigan is 20-2 (.909) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .635

Indiana: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Indiana was winless (0-7) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .533

Indiana is 2-5 (.250) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .530

Indiana is undefeated (9-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .590

Indiana is 4-9 (.286) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .460

Matchup Notes for Michigan vs. Indiana

Indiana’s WRs has averaged 14.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 12.0 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Indiana has averaged 12.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-21st-best among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.5 RAC since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Indiana’s WRs has averaged 14.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 12.0 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.1% of 210 attempts this season — T-11th-worst among FBS offenses. Indiana’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.3% of attempts this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan has 388 receptions in 24 games (just 16.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Indiana’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s offense has thrown for 1,209 passing yards in 9 games (just 134.3 YPG) this season — 7th-worst among FBS offenses. Indiana’s defense has allowed just 188.4 passing yards per game this season — 28th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan TEs have been targeted 34 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Michigan WRs have averaged just 9.3 yards per reception (456 yards/49 catches) this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.1

Indiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Indiana has averaged 12.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.5 RAC since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Indiana’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.5% of 617 attempts since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone this season– most in the Big Ten

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2

Michigan allowed passes of 40+ yards on 2 of 34 attempts (6%) last week– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1%

Michigan has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS

Indiana Hoosiers Defensive Stats & Trends

Indiana has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 16 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%.

Indiana allowed 3.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (193 yards / 52 touches) last week– best in the Big Ten; Average: 6.8

Indiana tackled opponents for a loss on 15 of 32 rushing attempts (47% TFL%) last week– best in the Big Ten; Average: 16%.

Indiana has tackled opponents for a loss on 8 of 27 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 13%.

Indiana tackled opponents for a loss on 15 of 32 rushing attempts (47% TFL%) last week– best in FBS; Average: 15%.