Mississippi vs Arkansas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 10

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Arkansas tight end Luke Hasz (9) pulls in a touchdown reception in the second half of an NCAA college football game against LSU in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023. LSU won 34-31. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 01, 2024, 3:25 PM
  • Mississippi is a -7 point favorite vs. Arkansas
  • Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN

The Ole Miss Rebels (6-2) visit Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-3) on Nov. 2 in Fayetteville, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Mississippi is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Ole Miss-7 -11053.5 -105-275
Arkansas +7 -11053.5 -115+220

Ole Miss vs Arkansas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ole Miss will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi and Arkansas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ole Miss vs Arkansas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ole Miss will cover the spread with 66.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Ole Miss has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Arkansas have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 13% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ole Miss players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ole Miss Player Prop Bets Today

  • Cayden Lee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Henry Parrish Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jaxson Dart has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tre Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Jaxson Dart has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Arkansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Arkansas Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Tyrone Broden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Ole Miss Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).

  • Ole Miss is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -0.38% ROI
  • Ole Miss is 1-7 when betting the Over for -6.75 Units / -76.27% ROI
  • Ole Miss is 7-1 when betting the Under for +5.9 Units / 67.43% ROI

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).

  • Arkansas is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 15.14% ROI
  • Arkansas is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Arkansas is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Ole Miss: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

Ole Miss is undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .619

Ole Miss is 7-1 (.875) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .531

Ole Miss is 13-4 (.765) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .600

Ole Miss is 15-2 (.882) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .714

Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Ole Miss

Arkansas is 2-9 (.182) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .456

Arkansas is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .703

Arkansas is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .286

Arkansas is 4-6 (.400) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .538

Matchup Notes for Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

Arkansas has gained 2,265 yards on 165 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-18th-best among FBS skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.0% of 267 attempts this season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. Ole Miss’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas has averaged 13.7 yards after the catch this season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 9.4 RAC this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Ole Miss’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 17.9% of 268 attempts this season — 3rd-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.8% of attempts this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Ole Miss’s RBs has averaged just 5.6 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-worst among FBS RBs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13.3 RAC to RBs this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Ole Miss’s RBs has 2 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-14th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed just 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Ole Miss Offensive Stats & Trends

Ole Miss QBs have 27 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down this season– most among FBS Teams

Ole Miss QBs have 117 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Ole Miss have completed passes for 20+ yards on 117 of their 662 total passing attempts (18%) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%

Ole Miss QBs have 48 completions for 20 or more yards this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Ole Miss WRs have 42 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas has gained 2,265 yards on 165 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — T-18th-best among FBS skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas Skill Players caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last week– most among SEC Teams

Arkansas TEs have averaged 22.1 yards per reception (265 yards/12 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Arkansas TEs were targeted 5 times in the Red Zone last week– most among Power Conference Teams

Arkansas TEs were targeted 5 times in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams

Ole Miss Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

Ole Miss has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 31 rushing attempts (42% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Ole Miss sacked opposing QBs on 29% of pass attempts (9/31) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%

Ole Miss has allowed one rushing TD on 31 carries in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Ole Miss has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 31 rushing attempts (42% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Ole Miss sacked opposing QBs on 29% of pass attempts (9/31) last week– best in FBS; Average: 6%

Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 8.2

Arkansas has allowed first downs on 44% of pass attempts in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 30%

Arkansas has allowed a Completion Pct of 76% (28 completions/37 attempts) in close and late situations this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 57%

Arkansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 52 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 11%.

Arkansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 52 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.