Mississippi vs Arkansas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:40 AM
  • Mississippi (8-2) are -2.5 point favorites vs Arkansas (5-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 63 points

The Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) visit Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Fayetteville.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Mississippi vs. Arkansas is total points.

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Mississippi vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Mississippi
Arkansas

Mississippi vs Arkansas Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Ole Miss will win this game with 59.3% confidence.

Mississippi vs Arkansas Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas will cover the spread with 64.8% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi and Arkansas, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Arkansas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Arkansas players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jadon Haselwood has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Matt Landers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Ole Miss have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+6.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Arkansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.22 Units / 11% ROI)

Mississippi Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Mississippi is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 8.89% ROI
  • Mississippi is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Mississippi is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Arkansas is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -30.81% ROI
  • Arkansas is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
  • Arkansas is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Mississippi: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

#7 Ole Miss is 10-1 (.625) when allowing less than 3 sacks — tied for 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .472

#7 Ole Miss is 10-3 (.667) when not losing a fumble — tied for 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .445

#7 Ole Miss is 15-1 (.833) when scoring 22 or more points — tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .629

#7 Ole Miss is 12-4 (.571) when making 7 or more explosive plays — 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi

Arkansas is 4-12 (.235) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2020 season– 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .434

Arkansas is 4-13 (.222) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season– 10th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .419

Arkansas is 2-13 (.133) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2020 season– tied for 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .302

Arkansas is 2-7 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2020 season– tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .392

Matchup Notes for Mississippi vs. Arkansas

Ole Miss has gained 2,106 yards on 149 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for third-worst among P5 defenses.

Ole Miss’s WRs has gained 4,405 yards on 283 receptions (15.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among P5 defenses.

Ole Miss’s WRs has gained 4,405 yards on 283 receptions (15.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 16.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi Offensive Stats & Trends

#14 Ole Miss RBs have rushed for 8 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Ole Miss has gained 2,106 yards on 149 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — tied for third-best among Power 5 skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for third-worst among P5 defenses.

#14 Ole Miss RBs have rushed for 20 TDs in the Red Zone this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Ole Miss’s WRs has gained 4,405 yards on 283 receptions (15.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 13.1 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-worst among P5 defenses.

#14 Ole Miss Skill Players have fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas QBs have 11 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Arkansas TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Arkansas TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Arkansas Skill Players have averaged 15.6 yards per reception (890 yards/57 catches) with over 10 yards to go since last season– tied for 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.3

Arkansas Skill Players have averaged 14.8 yards per reception (295 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9.8

Ole Miss Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

#14 Ole Miss has allowed 6.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (263 yards / 38 touches) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.5

#14 Ole Miss has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 7 of 735 attempts (1%) since last season– tied for 5th best in FBS; Average: 2%

#14 Ole Miss has allowed 12 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

#14 Ole Miss has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 7 of 735 attempts (1%) since last season– tied for 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

#14 Ole Miss has allowed first downs on 30% of rush attempts in close and late situations since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 22%

Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas has allowed 15.1 yards per completion (2,847 yards/189 completions) this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.2

Arkansas defense has allowed 42 completions for 20 or more yards this season– tied for fewest among Power 5 Teams

Arkansas has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 8 of 20 carries (40%) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 17%

Arkansas has allowed 2.2 touchdowns per interception (11 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.3

Arkansas has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 8 of 20 carries (40%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in FBS; Average: 18%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.